Mexico vs Ecuador Head-to-Head — FIFA World Cup 2026
Match Report
Match Events ?
22'J. Quinones (R. Alvarado)Mexico
31'R. Jimenez (J. Quinones)Mexico
45'A. Franco Ecuador
90'K. Paez Ecuador
90'P. Hincapie Ecuador
90'M. Caicedo Ecuador
Match Statistics ?
Mexico
Ecuador
43%
Possession
57%
3
Shots on Target
1
15
Total Shots
7
3
Corners
8
10
Fouls
14
1.02
xG
0.73
Player Ratings ?
Starting Lineups ?
Mexico · 4-3-3
1G
2D
3D
5D
23D
19M
6M
7M
25F
9F
16F
Ecuador · 4-4-2
1G
21D
4D
6D
3D
9M
23M
15M
20M
19F
13F
Predictions
Match Prediction ?
Favoured: Mexico
Expected: Mexico by 1–2 goals
Confidence: Medium
Mexico 57%Draw 24%Ecuador 18%
xG: 1.64Expected goalsxG: 0.81
Mexico vs Ecuador looks like a Mexico-favoured matchup based on our pre-tournament model. Mexico holds a slight edge according to our model, though the gap between the sides is not large enough to treat this as a banker. This prediction should be used as general match context rather than a guaranteed outcome.
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Win Probability (Market) ?
No odds data available
Model Rating Edge ?
Slight Edge
Mexico stronger
Mexico: 1590 (#13) · Ecuador: 1492 (#26)
H2H Record ?
2–5–3
Ecuador leads
Avg 2.4 goals/game · 10 meetings
Mexico
Ecuador
#1
Position ?
#3
9
Points ?
4
3W 0D 0L
Record ?
1W 1D 1L
6
Goals For ?
2
0
Goals Against ?
2
+6
Goal Diff
0
#15
FIFA Rank ?
#23
3.0%
Win Prob ?
0.2%
L W W W W
Form ?
L W D L
Head-to-Head History
Previous World Cup Meetings
9 Jun 2002FIFA World CupMexico2–1NEcuador
Last 10 Meetings (All Competitions)
14 Oct 2025FriendlyMexico1–1Ecuador
30 Jun 2024Copa AméricaMexico0–0NEcuador
5 Jun 2022FriendlyMexico0–0NEcuador
27 Oct 2021FriendlyMexico2–3NEcuador
9 Jun 2019FriendlyMexico3–2NEcuador
19 Jun 2015Copa AméricaMexico1–2NEcuador
31 May 2014FriendlyMexico3–1NEcuador
28 May 2011FriendlyMexico1–1NEcuador
4 Sep 2010FriendlyMexico1–2Ecuador
7 May 2010FriendlyMexico0–0NEcuador
💡 Betting Angles
Key Angles for this Match
Low-scoring tournament form — Mexico and Ecuador averaging just 1.7 combined goals/game. Under 2.5 has value.
Mexico in excellent form — 12 pts from last 5 tournament matches.