Kasimpasa vs Samsunspor Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.53
Draw
3.20
Away Win
3.08
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Kasimpasa
Samsunspor
C. Winck (A. Kol) ⚽
26'
A. Arous (A. Benedyczak) ⚽
31'
45'
⚽ T. Coulibaly
E. Belozoglu 🟨
51'
55'
🟨 A. Sousa
A. Arous (J. Rak-Sakyi) ⚽
64'
A. Benedyczak (K. Demirbay) ⚽
78'
E. Mendes 🟨
79'
89'
🟨 E. Watt
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
23
Total Shots
12
9
Shots on Goal
4
9
Corner Kicks
6
13
Fouls
20
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Kasimpasa (4-2-3-1)
Andreas Gianniotis
Cláudio Winck
Adem Arous
Matei Ilie
Ayberk Karapo
Andri Fannar Baldursson
Kerem Demirbay
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Elson Mendes
Ali Yavuz Kol
Adrian Benedyczak
Samsunspor (4-1-4-1)
Okan Kocuk
Josafat Mendes
Yunus Emre Çift
Gabriele Guarino
Logi Tomasson
Elliot Watt
Tanguy Coulibaly
Yalçın Kayan
Oskar Øhlenschlaeger
Emre Kılınç
Mohamed Bayo
Player Ratings ?
Kasimpasa
Adem ArousD8.3
Cláudio WinckD7.9
Ayberk KarapoD7.9
Samsunspor
Elliot WattM7.7
Tanguy CoulibalyM7.2
Afonso SousaM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Kasimpasa edge recent form, attack and defence, Samsunspor edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Kasimpasa stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Kasimpasa slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Kasimpasa stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Samsunspor stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Samsunspor have picked up two victories in their last five away outings, while Kasimpasa remain unbeaten at home with four draws from five matches. Kasimpasa have scored in three of their last five home games and kept three clean sheets over the same span. Both squads carry minor injury concerns, with Kasimpasa having one confirmed out and two doubtful players alongside Samsunspor's single confirmed absence and one doubtful selection. Kasimpasa rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while Samsunspor rate stronger on head-to-head. Samsunspor won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 30 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Kasimpasa's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Kasimpasa's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points, while Samsunspor's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Samsunspor
Samsunspor's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Samsunspor win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Kasimpasa remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Kasimpasa win
Latest market chance 40.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
36.6% → 40.2%
+3.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.9% → 28.2%
+0.3 pts
Samsunspor win
Latest market chance 31.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
35.5% → 31.6%
−3.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Kasimpasa
Draw
Samsunspor
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
KasimpasaSamsunspor
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
17th
7
Games Played
7
1.43
Points/Game
0.57
1.14
Goals/Game
0.86
1.14
Conceded/Game
2.14
12.6
Shots/Game
12.6
4.3
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Kasimpasa at home (6 matches) vs Samsunspor away (5 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
0.60
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.20
17%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Kasimpasa
Home form
W
D
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Samsunspor
Away form
W
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Kasimpasa Wins
2
Draws
1
Samsunspor Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
Kasimpasa0 – 1Samsunspor
Samsunspor0 – 0Kasimpasa
Samsunspor0 – 2Kasimpasa
Kasimpasa1 – 4Samsunspor
Kasimpasa1 – 0Samsunspor
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Kasimpasavs
Samsunspor
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.10
Goals conceded / game
2.30
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.9%→Latest 47.2%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 52.7%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Kasimpasa's 10 matches and 1 of Samsunspor's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?