Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Rams Park
Fri 09 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.25
Draw
6.04
Away Win
10.00
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Galatasaray
Kasimpasa
R. Leao 🟨
3'
24'
🟨 E. Mendes
28'
🟨 K. Demirbay
D. Sanchez 🟨
40'
A. Bardakci (A. Batrakov) ⚽
45'
51'
🟨 A. Kol
56'
🟨 A. Baldursson
L. Torreira 🟥
65'
68'
⚽ J. Rak-Sakyi
B. Yilmaz ⚽
90'
M. Lemina (V. Osimhen) ⚽
90+6'
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
25
Total Shots
9
11
Shots on Goal
3
8
Corner Kicks
1
12
Fouls
15
2
Yellow Cards
4
1
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
5
2
Goalkeeper Saves
8
Starting Lineups
Galatasaray (4-2-3-1)
Uğurcan Çakır
Barış Alper Yılmaz
Davinson Sánchez
Abdülkerim Bardakcı
Ismail Jakobs
Lucas Torreira
Gabriel Sara
Yunus Akgün
Aleksey Batrakov
Rafael Leão
Deniz Gül
Kasimpasa (4-2-3-1)
Andreas Gianniotis
Cláudio Winck
Kevin Mouanga
Matei Ilie
Ayberk Karapo
Andri Fannar Baldursson
Kerem Demirbay
Güven Yalçın
Elson Mendes
Ali Yavuz Kol
Adrian Benedyczak
Player Ratings ?
Galatasaray
Barış Alper YılmazD8.3
Abdülkerim BardakcıD8.0
Mario LeminaM7.6
Kasimpasa
Ayberk KarapoD7.7
Jesurun Rak-SakyiF7.7
Andreas GianniotisG7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Galatasaray edge recent form, attack and defence, head-to-head is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Galatasaray stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Galatasaray stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Galatasaray slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Galatasaray arrive at home unbeaten in their last five outings, while Kasimpasa have recorded two wins and a draw from five away matches. Galatasaray have scored in every home match over the last five games but have kept only two clean sheets during that same period. Four Galatasaray players are unavailable for selection, whereas Kasimpasa face one certain absence and another player remains doubtful. Galatasaray rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while head-to-head is closely matched. Kasimpasa won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 17 May 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Galatasaray's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.6 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Galatasaray unbeaten run
59%
Kasimpasa yellow cards after 75'
13
Galatasaray points from last 5 matches
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Galatasaray
Galatasaray's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Galatasaray win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Galatasaray win
Latest market chance 74.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
76.0% → 74.9%
−1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 15.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
15.3% → 15.9%
+0.6 pts
Kasimpasa win
Latest market chance 9.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
8.7% → 9.2%
+0.5 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
6 snapshots
+1.5+0.750−0.75Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5Oct 7Oct 8
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Galatasaray
Draw
Kasimpasa
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Galatasaray
Kasimpasa
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
8th
6
Games Played
6
2.17
Points/Game
1.67
2.17
Goals/Game
1.17
1.67
Conceded/Game
0.83
21.4
Shots/Game
12.6
7.5
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Galatasaray at home (9 matches) vs Kasimpasa away (8 matches)
2.78
Points/Game
2.00
2.67
Goals/Game
1.25
1.56
Conceded/Game
1.00
89%
Win Rate
62%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Galatasaray
Home form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Kasimpasa
Away form
L
L
W
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Galatasaray Wins
2
Draws
2
Kasimpasa Wins
1
Avg Goals
4.6
2026-05-172025-2026
Kasimpasa1 – 0Galatasaray
2025-12-212025-2026
Galatasaray3 – 0Kasimpasa
2025-03-022024-2025
Kasimpasa3 – 3Galatasaray
2024-09-282024-2025
Galatasaray3 – 3Kasimpasa
2024-03-172023-2024
Kasimpasa3 – 4Galatasaray
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Galatasaray
vs
Kasimpasa
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.10
2.10
Goals conceded / game
0.90
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
83.2%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
65.2%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
44.0%
BTTSBoth teams score
50.0%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.5%→Latest 64.6%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5Oct 7Oct 8
7 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 50.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Galatasaray's 10 matches and 3 of Kasimpasa's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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