Besiktas vs Kocaelispor Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Tupras Stadium
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.25
Draw
6.42
Away Win
11.82
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Besiktas
Kocaelispor
O. Kokcu (V. Cerny) ⚽
18'
27'
⚽ Show
29'
🟨 T. Bingol
D. Vlahovic ⚽ (P)
31'
78'
🟨 S. Oztasdelen
L. Trossard 🟨
78'
88'
🟨 S. Inan
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
16
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Goal
6
4
Corner Kicks
7
11
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
2
2
Offsides
3
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Besiktas (4-1-4-1)
Alexander Nübel
Amir Murillo
Tiago Djaló
Emirhan Topçu
Rıdvan Yılmaz
Salih Özcan
Václav Černý
Fabio Miretti
Orkun Kökçü
Leandro Trossard
Dušan Vlahović
Kocaelispor (5-3-2)
Serhat Öztaşdelen
Uğur Kaan Yıldız
Onur Öztonga
Emir Ortakaya
Show
Gonçalo Sousa
Mahamadou Susoho
Berkan Kutlu
Tayfur Bingöl
Metehan Altunbaş
Dan Agyei
Player Ratings ?
Besiktas
Tiago DjalóD8.0
Orkun KökçüM7.9
Alexander NübelG7.7
Kocaelispor
Berkan KutluM7.5
ShowD7.3
Emir OrtakayaD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Besiktas
Besiktas rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Besiktas a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Besiktas slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Besiktas stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Besiktas stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Besiktas have enjoyed a strong run at home with four wins from their last five outings, while Kocaelispor have struggled on the road with just one win and three defeats in that same span. The hosts have scored in every single match of their last five home games yet have managed only three clean sheets during that identical period. Besiktas face minor concerns with one player out and another doubtful, whereas Kocaelispor are significantly hampered by five confirmed absences alongside four players in doubt. Besiktas rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while defence is closely matched. Besiktas won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 28 February 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Kocaelispor's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.2 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Besiktas's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points, while Kocaelispor's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Besiktas a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Besiktas
Besiktas's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Besiktas win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Besiktas win
Latest market chance 76.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
74.5% → 76.1%
+1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 15.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
16.6% → 15.8%
−0.8 pts
Kocaelispor win
Latest market chance 8.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
8.8% → 8.1%
−0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Besiktas
Draw
Kocaelispor
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BesiktasKocaelispor

Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
6th
6
Games Played
6
2.00
Points/Game
2.00
2.33
Goals/Game
1.17
1.17
Conceded/Game
0.67
17.0
Shots/Game
12.8
6.5
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Besiktas at home (8 matches) vs Kocaelispor away (7 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.71
2.75
Goals/Game
1.29
0.38
Conceded/Game
1.14
100%
Win Rate
57%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Besiktas
Home form
L
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Kocaelispor
Away form
D
L
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Besiktas Wins
5
Draws
0
Kocaelispor Wins
0
Avg Goals
4.2
Kocaelispor0 – 1Besiktas
Besiktas3 – 1Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor1 – 3Besiktas
Besiktas5 – 2Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor0 – 5Besiktas
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Besiktasvs
Kocaelispor

Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.10
Goals conceded / game
0.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
1/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.6%→Latest 61.2%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.2%→Latest 46.5%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Besiktas's 10 matches and 3 of Kocaelispor's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?