PAOK vs Kalamata Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Toumba Stadium
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.20
Draw
7.39
Away Win
12.17
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
PAOK
Kalamata
28'
⚽ (P) Kenneth Vargas
43'
🟨 Gonzalo Agustín Piñeiro
Cherif Ndiaye ⚽
44'
56'
⚽ Kenneth Vargas (Julio Alonso)
60'
🟨 David Kurminowski
Antonis Tsiftsis 🟥
62'
66'
⚽ David Kurminowski (Julio Alonso)
Aritz Elustondo 🟨
89'
Match Statistics ?
61%
Ball Possession
39%
19
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Goal
6
7
Corner Kicks
2
8
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
PAOK (4-2-3-1)
A. Tsiftsis
J. Kenny
Diego Costa
G. Michailidis
A. Baba
C. Zafeiris
K. Jakić
D. Chatsidis
D. Pelkas
Taison
C. Ndiaye
Kalamata (4-2-3-1)
N. Vasiljević
P. Kaloutsikidis
S. Stroungis
Rodrigues
Julio Alonso
G. Piñeiro
D. Diarra
K. Vargas
E. Hamza
A. Mendes Moreira
D. Kurminowski
Player Ratings ?
PAOK
C. NdiayeF7.8
A. ŽivkovićF7.2
S. BanzaF6.7
Kalamata
K. VargasM8.1
Julio AlonsoD8.0
D. KurminowskiF7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. PAOK edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
PAOK stronger
HomeAway
Attack
PAOK stronger
HomeAway
Defence
PAOK stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
PAOK stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
PAOK have secured three wins from two draws in their last five home outings, while Kalamata have recorded two victories alongside a single draw and two defeats across their last five away matches. At home, PAOK have scored in four of their last five matches but have also kept three clean sheets within that same recent sample. PAOK rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2000. Over the 14-day comparison window, PAOK's implied win probability has risen by 3.9 percentage points, while Kalamata's implied win probability has fallen by 0.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from the draw
the draw's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a draw as less likely than it did 14 days ago. PAOK remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
PAOK win
Latest market chance 78.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
75.0% → 78.1%
+3.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 14.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
17.4% → 14.2%
−3.2 pts
Kalamata win
Latest market chance 7.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
7.6% → 7.7%
+0.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
PAOK
Draw
Kalamata
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PAOKKalamata
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
11th
5
Games Played
5
2.40
Points/Game
0.80
2.40
Goals/Game
1.20
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.60
14.4
Shots/Game
11.2
4.6
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
PAOK at home (8 matches) vs Kalamata away (8 matches)
2.25
Points/Game
1.12
2.00
Goals/Game
1.12
1.25
Conceded/Game
2.12
75%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
PAOK
Home form
W
D
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Kalamata
Away form
W
L
L
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
PAOK Wins
2
Draws
2
Kalamata Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.6
PAOK1 – 3Kalamata
Kalamata1 – 1PAOK
PAOK4 – 2Kalamata
Kalamata1 – 1PAOK
PAOK4 – 0Kalamata
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
PAOKvs
Kalamata
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 14 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.7%→Latest 62.0%+4.3 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 41.4%→Latest 44.5%+3.1 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of PAOK's 10 matches and 3 of Kalamata's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?