Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.19
Draw
7.06
Away Win
14.55
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 1
Match Events ?
Panathinaikos
Asteras Tripolis
Stefan de Vrij (Kings Kangwa) ⚽
27'
Imrân Louza ⚽
31'
60'
⚽ Antonis Papakanellos (Konstantinos Chrysopoulos)
Cyriel Dessers (Imrân Louza) ⚽
62'
Davide Calabria (Pedro Chirivella) ⚽
72'
Andrews Tetteh (Imrân Louza) ⚽
83'
Match Statistics ?
72%
Ball Possession
28%
27
Total Shots
5
8
Shots on Goal
1
9
Corner Kicks
1
10
Fouls
7
0
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Panathinaikos (4-2-3-1)
Iñaki Peña
D. Calabria
S. de Vrij
R. van Drongelen
A. Salah-Eddine
K. Kangwa
I. Louza
L. García
A. Ounahi
Santino Andino
C. Dessers
Asteras Tripolis (3-4-3)
N. Papadopoulos
D. Laskaris
F. Brorsson
K. Chrisopoulos
G. Kotsiras
Eder González
J. Chicco
Alex Méndez
J. Bartolo
F. Macheda
K. Ketu
Player Ratings ?
Panathinaikos
I. LouzaM9.5
C. DessersF8.2
K. KangwaM7.7
Asteras Tripolis
A. PapakanellosM6.8
F. MachedaF6.5
K. KetuF6.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Panathinaikos a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Panathinaikos stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Panathinaikos stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Panathinaikos stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Panathinaikos stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Panathinaikos arrive at home unbeaten in their last five outings with three wins and two draws, while visitors Asteras Tripolis have found the net just once in that same span across their away fixtures. The hosts have scored in four of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that identical period. Panathinaikos rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Panathinaikos won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 22 March 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Asteras Tripolis's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Panathinaikos's implied win probability has risen by 3.5 percentage points, while Asteras Tripolis's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Panathinaikos a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Panathinaikos unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Panathinaikos win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Panathinaikos win
Latest market chance 77.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
74.1% → 77.6%
+3.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 15.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
17.5% → 15.5%
−2.0 pts
Asteras Tripolis win
Latest market chance 6.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
8.4% → 6.9%
−1.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Panathinaikos
Draw
Asteras Tripolis
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PanathinaikosAsteras Tripolis
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
11th
6
Games Played
6
2.50
Points/Game
0.83
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.67
18.7
Shots/Game
10.1
6.2
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Panathinaikos at home (7 matches) vs Asteras Tripolis away (7 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.29
3.29
Goals/Game
1.29
0.57
Conceded/Game
3.00
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Panathinaikos
Home form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Asteras Tripolis
Away form
W
L
D
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Panathinaikos Wins
4
Draws
0
Asteras Tripolis Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.6
Panathinaikos5 – 1Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis1 – 2Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos2 – 0Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis0 – 1Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos0 – 1Asteras Tripolis
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Panathinaikosvs
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.10
0.70
Goals conceded / game
1.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.1%→Latest 57.8%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 42.7%→Latest 39.6%−3.1 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Panathinaikos's 10 matches and 2 of Asteras Tripolis's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?