Sudtirol vs Sampdoria Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Stadio Druso
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.94
Draw
2.96
Away Win
2.70
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Sudtirol
Sampdoria
18'
🟨 Manuel Cicconi
34'
⚽ Yari Verschaeren (Tjas Begic)
Giacomo Stabile 🟨
61'
68'
🟨 Stefan Gartenmann
Salvatore Molina ⚽ (P)
90+6'
Match Statistics ?
70%
Ball Possession
30%
11
Total Shots
12
2
Shots on Goal
3
2
Corner Kicks
5
11
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Sudtirol (3-4-2-1)
A. Plizzari
R. Stivanello
A. Giorgini
G. Stabile
S. Molina
Fabio Rispoli
S. Tronchin
S. Davì
R. Burnete
A. Vasic
K. Mixtur
Sampdoria (4-3-2-1)
Andrey Krastev
A. Di Pardo
A. Ferrari
F. Delli Carri
F. Depaoli
L. Henderson
O. Abildgaard
A. Makoumbou
T. Begić
Y. Verschaeren
T. Lauritsen
Player Ratings ?
Sudtirol
S. MolinaM7.8
A. OkoroF7.0
A. PlizzariG6.9
Sampdoria
Y. VerschaerenM7.7
T. BegićM7.4
G. TutinoF6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sudtirol edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sudtirol stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Sudtirol stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sudtirol slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sampdoria arrive at this fixture with a poor away record, having recorded just one draw and four defeats in their last five outings, whereas Sudtirol have been solid at home without a single loss across two wins and three draws in their recent campaign. At the Stadio Bruno Colidri, Sudtirol have found the net in three of their last five matches while keeping four clean sheets during that same stretch. Sudtirol rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Sampdoria won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 1 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Sudtirol's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Sudtirol's implied win probability has fallen by 5.6 percentage points, while Sampdoria's implied win probability has risen by 3.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Sampdoria losing run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
1
Sampdoria points from last 5 matches
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Sudtirol
Sudtirol's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Sudtirol win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Sampdoria remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sudtirol win
Latest market chance 32.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
37.6% → 32.0%
−5.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 31.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
29.5% → 31.5%
+2.0 pts
Sampdoria win
Latest market chance 36.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
32.8% → 36.5%
+3.7 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
7 snapshots
+6+30−3Oct 18Oct 20Oct 21Oct 22Oct 24
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sudtirol
Draw
Sampdoria
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sudtirol
Sampdoria
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
20th
7
Games Played
7
1.71
Points/Game
0.57
1.29
Goals/Game
1.00
0.86
Conceded/Game
2.14
11.7
Shots/Game
13.7
3.5
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Sudtirol at home (6 matches) vs Sampdoria away (8 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
0.62
1.00
Goals/Game
0.75
0.50
Conceded/Game
2.12
33%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sudtirol
Home form
D
W
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Sampdoria
Away form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sudtirol Wins
3
Draws
0
Sampdoria Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
2026-05-012025-2026
Sampdoria1 – 0Sudtirol
2025-08-312025-2026
Sudtirol3 – 1Sampdoria
2025-02-152024-2025
Sudtirol2 – 1Sampdoria
2024-09-212024-2025
Sampdoria1 – 0Sudtirol
2024-04-132023-2024
Sampdoria0 – 1Sudtirol
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sudtirol
vs
Sampdoria
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
0.90
0.90
Goals conceded / game
2.20
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
5/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
69.0%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
44.6%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
24.8%
BTTSBoth teams score
51.4%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 44.4%→Latest 44.6%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
7 common bookmakers · first comparable 1 day before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.5%→Latest 51.4%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 18Oct 20Oct 21Oct 22Oct 24
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Sudtirol's 10 matches and 1 of Sampdoria's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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