Sudtirol vs Ascoli Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Druso
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.65
Draw
3.05
Away Win
3.00
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Sudtirol
Ascoli
Salvatore Molina 🟨
37'
Giacomo Stabile 🟨
48'
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes 🟨
60'
Rares Burnete 🟨
67'
75'
🟨 Nicholas Rizzo
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
16
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Goal
2
5
Corner Kicks
5
15
Fouls
8
4
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Sudtirol (5-4-1)
A. Plizzari
S. Molina
R. Stivanello
A. Giorgini
G. Stabile
S. Davì
Vasco Lopes
S. Tronchin
Fabio Rispoli
A. Vasic
A. Okoro
Ascoli (4-2-3-1)
S. Vitale
A. Oliveri
M. Curado
N. Rizzo
A. Guiébré
S. Damiani
G. Corradini
A. Silipo
T. Milanese
S. D'Uffizi
Matteo Brunori
Player Ratings ?
Sudtirol
S. DavìD7.3
K. MixturF7.2
A. GiorginiD7.0
Ascoli
S. VitaleG7.3
A. OliveriD7.2
M. CuradoD7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sudtirol edge head-to-head, Ascoli edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ascoli stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ascoli slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ascoli slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sudtirol stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Ascoli have secured two wins and two draws from their last five away fixtures, while Sudtirol remain unbeaten at home with three victories and three draws in that same span. At home, Sudtirol have found the net in four of their last five matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that period. Ascoli rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack and defence, while Sudtirol rate stronger on head-to-head. Sudtirol won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 4 February 2024, having won 2 of the last 4 encounters to Ascoli's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Sudtirol's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points, while Ascoli's implied win probability has risen by 1.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Ascoli
Ascoli's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Ascoli win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Sudtirol remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sudtirol win
Latest market chance 37.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
38.4% → 37.6%
−0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
30.6% → 30.0%
−0.6 pts
Ascoli win
Latest market chance 32.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
31.1% → 32.4%
+1.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sudtirol
Draw
Ascoli
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SudtirolAscoli
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
6th
5
Games Played
5
2.20
Points/Game
2.00
1.80
Goals/Game
1.40
0.60
Conceded/Game
0.80
11.7
Shots/Game
13.4
3.5
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Sudtirol at home (6 matches) vs Ascoli away (6 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
1.50
1.00
Goals/Game
1.33
0.50
Conceded/Game
0.50
33%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sudtirol
Home form
D
D
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ascoli
Away form
D
W
D
W
L
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sudtirol Wins
2
Draws
1
Ascoli Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
Ascoli1 – 2Sudtirol
Sudtirol3 – 1Ascoli
Ascoli1 – 0Sudtirol
Sudtirol2 – 2Ascoli
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sudtirolvs
Ascoli
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.20
0.80
Goals conceded / game
0.80
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.0%→Latest 48.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 55.1%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
5 of Sudtirol's 10 matches and 5 of Ascoli's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?