Sampdoria vs Arezzo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Luigi Ferraris
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 18:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.83
Draw
3.71
Away Win
4.59
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Sampdoria
Arezzo
Liam Henderson 🟨
2'
Liam Henderson (Yari Verschaeren) ⚽
9'
12'
🟨 Luca Chierico
15'
⚽ Alessandro Arena (Shaka Mawuli Eklu)
60'
⚽ Luca Chierico
66'
🟨 Shaka Mawuli Eklu
Bernardo Corradi 🟨
68'
Filippo Delli Carri 🟨
89'
90+2'
🟨 Christian Bucchi
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
22
Total Shots
14
5
Shots on Goal
5
10
Corner Kicks
4
13
Fouls
18
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Sampdoria (4-3-2-1)
P. Vindahl
A. Di Pardo
L. Ravanelli
F. Delli Carri
M. Cicconi
L. Henderson
A. Makoumbou
O. Abildgaard
Y. Verschaeren
T. Begić
T. Lauritsen
Arezzo (4-1-4-1)
A. Nunziante
A. Renzi
M. Gilli
M. Coppolaro
S. Righetti
L. Chierico
A. Arena
Mattia Sala
S. Mawuli
C. Tavernelli
A. Cerri
Player Ratings ?
Sampdoria
L. HendersonM7.7
Y. VerschaerenM7.4
P. VindahlG6.7
Arezzo
A. ArenaM7.9
L. ChiericoM7.8
E. PattarelloF7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sampdoria edge attack and defence, Arezzo edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arezzo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sampdoria slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sampdoria slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-head unavailable — prediction based on form, attack and defence.
Match Analysis
Arezzo arrive with an impressive away record of four wins from their last five outings, while Sampdoria have secured three victories in that same span at home. Sampdoria have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have kept two clean sheets in that identical period. Arezzo rate stronger on form, while Sampdoria hold a slight advantage in attack and defence. Over the 6-day comparison window, Sampdoria's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Arezzo's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Sampdoria losing run
12
Arezzo points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Sampdoria
Sampdoria's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Sampdoria win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sampdoria win
Latest market chance 52.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
52.0% → 52.8%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.0% → 25.9%
−0.1 pts
Arezzo win
Latest market chance 21.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.0% → 21.3%
−0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sampdoria
Draw
Arezzo
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SampdoriaArezzo
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
15th
6
Games Played
6
0.67
Points/Game
1.17
1.00
Goals/Game
1.00
2.17
Conceded/Game
2.17
13.7
Shots/Game
11.3
4.5
Shots on Target
2.8
Home vs Away Context
Sampdoria at home (5 matches) vs Arezzo away (8 matches)
1.20
Points/Game
1.50
1.40
Goals/Game
1.12
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.62
40%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sampdoria
Home form
L
W
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Arezzo
Away form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sampdoria Wins
0
Draws
0
Arezzo Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
Sampdoria1 – 2Arezzo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sampdoriavs
Arezzo
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.30
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.5%→Latest 49.7%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.6%→Latest 51.4%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Sampdoria's 10 matches and 3 of Arezzo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?