Palermo vs Carrarese Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Renzo Barbera
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.48
Draw
4.89
Away Win
6.32
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Palermo
Carrarese
22'
🟨 Luka Topalovic
Dennis Johnsen (Hernani) ⚽
26'
74'
⚽ Tommaso Rubino (G. Marconi)
Dominic Vavassori ⚽
80'
90+3'
🟨 Filippo Oliana
Match Statistics ?
41%
Ball Possession
59%
19
Total Shots
15
7
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
7
5
Fouls
14
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Palermo (4-2-3-1)
M. Perin
T. Cassandro
G. Magnani
P. Ceccaroni
T. Augello
J. Segre
F. Ranocchia
D. Vavassori
Hernani
D. Johnsen
J. Pohjanpalo
Carrarese (3-5-2)
S. Pizzignacco
F. Ruggeri
F. Oliana
F. Reale
G. Parlanti
Nicolás Schiavi
M. Braunöder
J. Martini
J. Rouhi
F. Abiuso
L. Topalović
Player Ratings ?
Palermo
D. VavassoriM8.0
D. JohnsenM8.0
HernaniM7.7
Carrarese
T. RubinoF8.0
S. PizzignaccoG7.0
F. RealeD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Palermo
Palermo rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Palermo an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Palermo arrive at home with a perfect record from their last five outings, while Carrarese sit at 2 wins and 1 draw from their away sample. The hosts have scored in all five of their recent home games but have kept just two clean sheets from that same run. Palermo rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Palermo won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 8 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 4 encounters to Carrarese's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.25 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Palermo's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points, while Carrarese's implied win probability has risen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Palermo.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Carrarese losing run
15
Palermo points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Palermo
Palermo's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Palermo win as less likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Palermo win
Latest market chance 65.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
67.2% → 65.4%
−1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
18.7% → 19.4%
+0.7 pts
Carrarese win
Latest market chance 15.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
14.1% → 15.1%
+1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Palermo
Draw
Carrarese
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PalermoCarrarese
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
16th
7
Games Played
7
2.71
Points/Game
1.00
2.29
Goals/Game
0.86
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
18.1
Shots/Game
13.0
6.1
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Palermo at home (7 matches) vs Carrarese away (8 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.88
2.29
Goals/Game
0.88
0.86
Conceded/Game
1.50
100%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Palermo
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Carrarese
Away form
D
L
W
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Palermo Wins
3
Draws
1
Carrarese Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Palermo2 – 1Carrarese
Carrarese0 – 1Palermo
Palermo5 – 0Carrarese
Palermo1 – 1Carrarese
Carrarese1 – 0Palermo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Palermovs
Carrarese
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.10
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 63.2%→Latest 62.8%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.8%→Latest 56.8%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Palermo's 10 matches and 1 of Carrarese's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?