Padova vs Sudtirol Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Comunale Euganeo
Tue 27 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.45
Draw
3.20
Away Win
3.16
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Padova
Sudtirol
Gabriele Artistico (Giovanni·Giunti) ⚽
19'
Matteo Lovato 🟨
68'
68'
🟨 Salvatore Molina
Matteo Cocchi 🟨
69'
Pietro Fusi 🟨
74'
81'
🟨 Fabio Rispoli
Alessandro Capelli ⚽
87'
Alessandro Dellavalle 🟨
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
12
Total Shots
22
5
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
6
20
Fouls
11
4
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Padova (3-5-2)
A. Sorrentino
Alessandro Dellavalle
M. Lovato
C. Pastina
M. Pompetti
E. Zuelli
G. Giunti
P. Fusi
M. Cocchi
G. Artistico
L. Moro
Sudtirol (3-4-2-1)
A. Plizzari
R. Stivanello
A. Giorgini
D. Veroli
S. Molina
D. Brik
S. Tronchin
F. Davi
Vasco Lopes
A. Vasic
A. Okoro
Player Ratings ?
Padova
A. SorrentinoG8.4
G. ArtisticoF8.1
A. CapelliM7.7
Sudtirol
R. BurneteF7.2
S. MolinaM7.1
S. TronchinM7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Padova edge recent form, Sudtirol edge defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Padova slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Sudtirol slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sudtirol stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sudtirol have managed just one win from their last five away fixtures, while Padova are struggling at home with three defeats in that same span. Padova have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have only kept a clean sheet once during that period. Padova hold a slight advantage in form, while Sudtirol rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while attack is closely matched. Sudtirol won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 25 January 2026, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters to Padova's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.5 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Padova's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points, while Sudtirol's implied win probability has risen by 0.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Padova
Padova's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Padova win as less likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Padova win
Latest market chance 39.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
39.8% → 39.0%
−0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.9% → 29.5%
+0.6 pts
Sudtirol win
Latest market chance 31.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
31.3% → 31.5%
+0.2 pts
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PadovaSudtirol
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
7th
8
Games Played
8
1.25
Points/Game
1.63
0.88
Goals/Game
1.25
1.25
Conceded/Game
0.88
10.9
Shots/Game
11.7
3.2
Shots on Target
3.5
Home vs Away Context
Padova at home (7 matches) vs Sudtirol away (6 matches)
1.14
Points/Game
0.83
1.00
Goals/Game
1.17
1.29
Conceded/Game
2.00
29%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Padova
Home form
D
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sudtirol
Away form
D
D
W
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Padova Wins
0
Draws
1
Sudtirol Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.5
Sudtirol3 – 0Padova
Padova1 – 1Sudtirol
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Padovavs
Sudtirol
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.00
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.1%→Latest 44.4%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.6%→Latest 51.9%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Padova's 10 matches and 1 of Sudtirol's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?