Padova vs Empoli Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Comunale Euganeo
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.20
Draw
3.38
Away Win
3.51
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Padova
Empoli
Gabriele Artistico (Lorenzo Carissoni) ⚽
14'
30'
⚽ Joseph Ceesay (Gabriele Indragoli)
Christian Pastina (Kevin Varas) ⚽
36'
Alessandro Capelli 🟨
41'
64'
⚽ Filippo Di Stefano
Alessandro Sorrentino 🟨
64'
90+1'
🟨 Gerard Yepes
Match Statistics ?
60%
Ball Possession
40%
17
Total Shots
16
6
Shots on Goal
5
8
Corner Kicks
6
11
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Padova (3-5-2)
A. Sorrentino
L. Carissoni
E. Silletti
C. Pastina
A. Capelli
E. Zuelli
M. Pompetti
K. Varas
M. Cocchi
L. Moro
G. Artistico
Empoli (3-5-2)
J. Seghetti
D. Bembnista
G. Indragoli
M. Curto
K. Zedadka
F. Bandinelli
Gerard Yepes
E. Saporiti
N. Corrado
J. Ceesay
B. Popov
Player Ratings ?
Padova
G. ArtisticoF8.0
C. PastinaD7.3
K. VarasM7.3
Empoli
F. DistefanoF8.2
J. CeesayF7.9
S. ShpendiF7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Padova edge recent form and defence, Empoli edge attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Padova stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Empoli slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Padova stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Empoli stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Padova have secured two victories from their last five home outings, while Empoli have recorded just a single win in their last five away fixtures. The hosts have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that same period. Padova rate stronger on form and defence, while Empoli rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Padova won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 12 April 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Empoli's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Padova's implied win probability has fallen by 1.7 percentage points, while Empoli's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Padova
Padova's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Padova win as less likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Padova win
Latest market chance 42.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
44.3% → 42.6%
−1.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.2% → 28.4%
+0.2 pts
Empoli win
Latest market chance 29.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.6% → 29.0%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Padova
Draw
Empoli
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PadovaEmpoli
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
18th
10
Games Played
10
1.40
Points/Game
0.80
1.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.10
Conceded/Game
1.70
10.9
Shots/Game
11.6
3.2
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Padova at home (7 matches) vs Empoli away (6 matches)
1.14
Points/Game
0.83
1.00
Goals/Game
1.17
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.67
29%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Padova
Home form
W
L
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Empoli
Away form
L
W
L
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Padova Wins
1
Draws
1
Empoli Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Padova1 – 0Empoli
Empoli3 – 1Padova
Padova0 – 1Empoli
Empoli3 – 1Padova
Empoli1 – 1Padova
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Padovavs
Empoli
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.80
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.3%→Latest 48.4%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.1%→Latest 53.6%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?