Padova vs Carrarese Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Comunale Euganeo
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.90
Draw
3.42
Away Win
4.58
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Padova
Carrarese
14'
⚽ Tommaso Rubino (Gabriele parlanti)
40'
🟨 Filippo Oliana
51'
⚽ Jonas Rouhi (Niccolò Belloni)
Gianluca Caprari 🟨
51'
62'
🟨 Matthias Braunöder
80'
🟨 Niccolò Belloni
82'
🟨 Gabriele parlanti
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
11
Total Shots
10
1
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
1
7
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Padova (3-5-2)
A. Sorrentino
F. Sgarbi
M. Lovato
Alessandro Dellavalle
A. Capelli
P. Fusi
E. Zuelli
G. Caprari
M. Cocchi
M. Bortolussi
L. Moro
Carrarese (3-5-2)
S. Pizzignacco
F. Ruggeri
F. Oliana
F. Reale
N. Belloni
Nicolás Schiavi
M. Braunöder
G. Parlanti
J. Rouhi
F. Abiuso
T. Rubino
Player Ratings ?
Padova
M. LovatoD6.9
G. CaprariM6.9
P. FusiM6.8
Carrarese
T. RubinoF8.2
J. RouhiM8.1
N. BelloniM7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Padova
Padova rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Padova a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Padova stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Padova stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Padova stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Padova stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Padova arrive with an impressive unbeaten run in their last five home outings, whereas Carrarese have struggled away from home, managing just a single draw and suffering four defeats in their recent five matches. The hosts have been consistent in front of goal, scoring in every one of their last five home games while also keeping four clean sheets during that same period. Padova rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Padova won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 10 February 2026, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters to Carrarese's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 0.5 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Padova's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points, while Carrarese's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Padova a strong edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Padova
Padova's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Padova win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Padova win
Latest market chance 49.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
47.9% → 49.5%
+1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.0% → 27.8%
−0.2 pts
Carrarese win
Latest market chance 22.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
24.1% → 22.7%
−1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Padova
Draw
Carrarese
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PadovaCarrarese
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
20th
5
Games Played
5
1.40
Points/Game
0.20
1.00
Goals/Game
0.40
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.20
10.9
Shots/Game
13.0
3.2
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Padova at home (7 matches) vs Carrarese away (8 matches)
1.14
Points/Game
0.88
1.00
Goals/Game
0.88
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.50
29%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Padova
Home form
W
W
D
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Carrarese
Away form
L
L
D
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Padova Wins
1
Draws
1
Carrarese Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.0
Padova0 – 2Carrarese
Padova1 – 0Carrarese
Carrarese0 – 0Padova
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Padovavs
Carrarese
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.30
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.5%→Latest 51.1%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.1%→Latest 54.4%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
4 of Padova's 10 matches and 4 of Carrarese's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?