Modena vs Verona Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Alberto Braglia
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 18:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.04
Draw
3.22
Away Win
4.27
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Modena
Verona
Giuseppe Caso (Gastón Brugman) ⚽
13'
Alessandro Bianco 🟨
16'
24'
⚽ Daniel Mosquera
28'
⚽ Daniel Mosquera
45+2'
🟨 andrea le borgne
54'
🟨 Andrias Edmundsson
77'
🟥 Andrias Edmundsson
Daniele Montevago (Giuseppe Caso) ⚽
85'
Andrea Belotti ⚽
90+5'
Andrea Belotti 🟨
90+7'
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
23
Total Shots
14
6
Shots on Goal
7
3
Corner Kicks
4
5
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Modena (3-5-2)
L. Chichizola
D. Tonoli
S. Nador
B. Nieling
G. Olzer
A. Bianco
G. Brugman
S. Santoro
Paulo Azzi
G. Ambrosino
G. Caso
Verona (4-4-2)
S. Perilli
G. Zappa
P. Dawidowicz
A. Edmundsson
D. De Battisti
A. Le Borgne
E. Iannoni
N. Lella
A. Sarr
D. Livramento
D. Mosquera
Player Ratings ?
Modena
G. CasoF8.4
D. MontevagoF8.2
A. BelottiF7.8
Verona
D. MosqueraF8.6
E. IannoniM6.4
P. DawidowiczD6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Modena edge recent form, attack and defence, Verona edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Modena stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Modena slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Modena slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Verona stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Verona have struggled on their travels recently, recording no wins from their last five away outings with two draws and three defeats, while Modena have found home form inconsistent with just two victories in that same span despite failing to secure a single draw. At the Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Modena have netted in three of their last five home matches but have conceded in every single fixture during that period, failing to keep a clean sheet across those five contests. Modena rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack and defence, while Verona rate stronger on head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2012. Over the 5-day comparison window, Modena's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points, while Verona's implied win probability has risen by 0.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Modena
Modena's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Modena win as less likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Modena win
Latest market chance 46.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
47.6% → 46.2%
−1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.1% → 28.8%
+0.7 pts
Verona win
Latest market chance 25.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.3% → 25.0%
+0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Modena
Draw
Verona
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ModenaVerona
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
9th
5
Games Played
5
2.00
Points/Game
1.40
1.60
Goals/Game
2.00
0.80
Conceded/Game
1.40
17.9
Shots/Game
15.5
5.5
Shots on Target
5.1
Home vs Away Context
Modena at home (6 matches) vs Verona away (7 matches)
2.17
Points/Game
1.14
2.00
Goals/Game
1.14
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.43
67%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Modena
Home form
W
L
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Verona
Away form
D
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Modena Wins
1
Draws
2
Verona Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.2
Modena3 – 2Verona
Verona3 – 1Modena
Modena1 – 1Verona
Modena1 – 1Verona
Verona2 – 1Modena
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Modenavs
Verona
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.6%→Latest 48.1%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.2%→Latest 53.2%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Modena's 10 matches and 4 of Verona's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?