Modena vs Mantova Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Alberto Braglia
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.82
Draw
3.60
Away Win
4.74
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Modena
Mantova
26'
🟨 Nicolo Radaelli
34'
🟨 Simone Trimboli
Alessandro Bianco 🟨
47'
Andrea Belotti (Giuseppe Ambrosino) ⚽
52'
Antonio Imputato 🟨
66'
Gastón Brugman 🟨
81'
84'
⚽ matteo spinacce (Davide Bragantini)
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
10
Total Shots
12
2
Shots on Goal
3
0
Corner Kicks
7
14
Fouls
23
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Modena (3-5-2)
L. Chichizola
F. Folino
S. Nador
B. Nieling
A. Imputato
A. Bianco
G. Brugman
S. Santoro
Paulo Azzi
A. Belotti
G. Ambrosino
Mantova (3-4-2-1)
F. Bardi
B. Tomašević
S. Cella
A. Castellini
N. Radaelli
S. Trimboli
J. Mboyo
F. Benaissa-Yahia
R. Ilie
F. Ruocco
E. Gliozzi
Player Ratings ?
Modena
A. BelottiF7.9
G. AmbrosinoF7.7
S. NadorD7.0
Mantova
M. SpinaccèF8.2
S. TrimboliM6.9
S. CellaD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Modena
Modena rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Modena a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Modena stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Modena stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Modena stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Modena stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Mantova have enjoyed a solid run away from home with four wins and a draw in their last five outings, while Modena have also found the net regularly at this venue with four victories and just one defeat across their recent home fixtures. The hosts have been involved in scoring action in four of their last five matches at home, though they have failed to keep a clean sheet in only one of those same recent games. Modena rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Modena won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 21 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Mantova's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Modena's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points, while Mantova's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Modena a slight edge.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Modena
Modena's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Modena win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Modena win
Latest market chance 52.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
54.5% → 52.4%
−2.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
24.8% → 25.7%
+0.9 pts
Mantova win
Latest market chance 21.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
20.7% → 21.9%
+1.2 pts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Modena
Mantova
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
4th
9
Games Played
9
2.11
Points/Game
1.89
1.89
Goals/Game
1.56
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.11
17.9
Shots/Game
13.3
5.5
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Modena at home (6 matches) vs Mantova away (6 matches)
2.17
Points/Game
2.33
2.00
Goals/Game
1.83
1.17
Conceded/Game
0.83
67%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Modena
Home form
L
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
2.2
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Mantova
Away form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
2.0
Goals scored
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Modena Wins
3
Draws
2
Mantova Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.6
2026-03-212025-2026
Modena2 – 1Mantova
2025-09-202025-2026
Mantova1 – 3Modena
2025-02-012024-2025
Modena3 – 1Mantova
2024-11-302024-2025
Mantova0 – 0Modena
2010-05-082009-2010
Mantova1 – 1Modena
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Modena
vs
Mantova
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.10
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
78.4%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
56.3%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
34.8%
BTTSBoth teams score
57.6%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.0%→Latest 57.7%+2.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 27Oct 28Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.4%→Latest 58.6%+3.2 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 27Oct 28Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
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