Modena vs Cesena Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Alberto Braglia
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.55
Draw
4.15
Away Win
5.88
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Modena
Cesena
5'
🟥 Antonio Fiori
Andrea Belotti (Gastón Brugman) ⚽
19'
20'
🟨 Mihajlo Ilic
Andrea Belotti (Daniel Tonoli) ⚽
32'
Gianluca Frabotta ⚽ (OG)
35'
Match Statistics ?
70%
Ball Possession
30%
19
Total Shots
4
5
Shots on Goal
1
7
Corner Kicks
1
5
Fouls
12
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
1
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Modena (3-4-2-1)
L. Chichizola
F. Folino
S. Nador
B. Nieling
D. Tonoli
G. Brugman
A. Bianco
Paulo Azzi
G. Olzer
G. Ambrosino
A. Belotti
Cesena (4-3-3)
A. Siano
A. Ciofi
M. Ilić
J. Gelli
G. Frabotta
D. Bisoli
M. Guidi
M. Francesconi
L. D'Andrea
C. Shpendi
A. Fiori
Player Ratings ?
Modena
A. BelottiF9.2
F. FolinoD7.8
G. BrugmanM7.7
Cesena
C. ShpendiF6.5
M. MangravitiD6.3
M. FrancesconiM6.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Modena edge recent form, attack and defence, Cesena edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Modena stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Modena stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Modena slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Cesena stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cesena have managed just one win from their last five away outings, while Modena have secured three victories in their corresponding home sample. Modena have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Modena rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Cesena rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 7 March 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.2 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Modena's implied win probability has risen by 3.7 percentage points, while Cesena's implied win probability has fallen by 2.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Modena
Modena's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Modena win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Modena win
Latest market chance 61.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
57.4% → 61.1%
+3.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
23.5% → 22.3%
−1.2 pts
Cesena win
Latest market chance 16.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
19.1% → 16.7%
−2.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Modena
Draw
Cesena
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ModenaCesena
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
14th
7
Games Played
7
1.86
Points/Game
1.14
1.71
Goals/Game
1.14
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.29
17.9
Shots/Game
13.0
5.5
Shots on Target
3.5
Home vs Away Context
Modena at home (6 matches) vs Cesena away (5 matches)
2.17
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
0.80
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.60
67%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Modena
Home form
L
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Cesena
Away form
L
D
W
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Modena Wins
0
Draws
3
Cesena Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.2
Modena0 – 0Cesena
Cesena1 – 0Modena
Modena0 – 1Cesena
Cesena2 – 2Modena
Modena0 – 0Cesena
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Modenavs
Cesena
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.3%→Latest 55.9%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.2%→Latest 52.8%−1.4 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Modena's 10 matches and 2 of Cesena's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?