Mantova vs Palermo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.53
Draw
3.36
Away Win
2.18
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Mantova
Palermo
21'
🟨 Mattia Bani
62'
⚽ Jacopo Segre
86'
⚽ Hernani (Dominic Vavassori)
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
15
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
3
15
Fouls
12
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Mantova (3-4-2-1)
F. Bardi
B. Tomašević
S. Cella
A. Castellini
Tommaso Del Lungo
S. Trimboli
R. Kouda
F. Benaissa-Yahia
D. Bragantini
R. Ilie
F. Ruocco
Palermo (4-2-3-1)
M. Perin
T. Cassandro
M. Bani
P. Ceccaroni
T. Augello
J. Segre
F. Ranocchia
D. Vavassori
A. Palumbo
D. Johnsen
J. Pohjanpalo
Player Ratings ?
Mantova
B. TomaševićD7.3
S. CellaD7.0
D. BragantiniM6.9
Palermo
J. SegreM8.2
D. VavassoriM8.0
HernaniM7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Palermo edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Palermo slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Palermo slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Mantova have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Palermo have recorded two wins and a single draw in their corresponding away fixtures over the same span. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have only managed to keep a clean sheet once during that identical period. Palermo rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form and attack, while defence is closely matched. Palermo won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 4 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 4 encounters to Mantova's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.25 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Mantova win
Latest market chance 28.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.7% → 28.6%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.9% → 27.9%
±0.0 pts
Palermo win
Latest market chance 43.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
43.4% → 43.5%
+0.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Mantova
Draw
Palermo
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MantovaPalermo

Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
1st
6
Games Played
6
2.33
Points/Game
2.67
2.17
Goals/Game
2.33
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.17
13.3
Shots/Game
18.1
4.8
Shots on Target
6.1
Home vs Away Context
Mantova at home (6 matches) vs Palermo away (7 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
1.86
1.17
Goals/Game
2.43
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.71
33%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Mantova
Home form
L
W
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Palermo
Away form
L
L
W
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Mantova Wins
0
Draws
3
Palermo Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Palermo2 – 1Mantova
Mantova1 – 1Palermo
Palermo2 – 2Mantova
Mantova0 – 0Palermo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mantovavs
Palermo

Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.40
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.1%→Latest 56.1%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.7%→Latest 59.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
3 of Mantova's 10 matches and 4 of Palermo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?