Mantova vs Cremonese Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Tue 27 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.19
Draw
3.40
Away Win
3.48
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Mantova
Cremonese
1'
⚽ Federico Bonazzoli (Jari Vandeputte)
24'
🟨 Simone Lottici Tessadri
Stefano Cella 🟨
52'
64'
🟨 Tommaso Berti
65'
🟨 Tommaso Barbieri
Alessio Castellini 🟨
66'
80'
⚽ Marco Nasti (Dachi Lordkipanidze)
84'
🟥 Tommaso Barbieri
Simone Trimboli 🟨
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
66%
Ball Possession
34%
20
Total Shots
6
9
Shots on Goal
5
5
Corner Kicks
2
13
Fouls
14
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
4
Offsides
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
8
Starting Lineups
Mantova (4-1-4-1)
F. Bardi
Tommaso Del Lungo
B. Tomašević
A. Castellini
F. Benaissa-Yahia
S. Cella
D. Bragantini
S. Trimboli
R. Kouda
F. Ruocco
E. Gliozzi
Cremonese (4-2-3-1)
A. Fulignati
T. Barbieri
F. Baschirotto
A. Vogliacco
G. Pezzella
M. Thorsby
Simone Lottici Tessadri
S. Elia
T. Berti
J. Vandeputte
F. Bonazzoli
Player Ratings ?
Mantova
S. TrimboliM7.2
A. CastelliniD7.1
R. IlieM6.8
Cremonese
A. FulignatiG8.5
F. BonazzoliF8.0
M. NastiF7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Mantova
Mantova rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Mantova a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Mantova stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Mantova stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Mantova slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
While Mantova have secured three victories in their last five home outings, Cremonese have struggled away from home with no wins and just two draws recorded in that same recent sample. Mantova have found the net in four of their last five home matches, yet they have managed only a single clean sheet during that identical sequence. Mantova rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Cremonese won the most recent meeting 4-2 on 25 April 2025, having won 1 of the last 4 encounters to Mantova's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.5 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Mantova's implied win probability has risen by 2.6 percentage points, while Cremonese's implied win probability has fallen by 2.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Mantova a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Mantova
Mantova's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Mantova win as more likely than it did 2 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Mantova win
Latest market chance 43.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
41.1% → 43.7%
+2.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.3% → 28.0%
−0.3 pts
Cremonese win
Latest market chance 28.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
30.6% → 28.3%
−2.3 pts
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MantovaCremonese
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
18th
8
Games Played
8
2.13
Points/Game
0.75
1.75
Goals/Game
0.75
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.38
13.3
Shots/Game
11.8
4.8
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Mantova at home (6 matches) vs Cremonese away (6 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
1.33
1.17
Goals/Game
1.50
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.17
33%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Mantova
Home form
W
W
W
D
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Cremonese
Away form
L
L
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Mantova Wins
2
Draws
1
Cremonese Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.5
Cremonese4 – 2Mantova
Mantova1 – 0Cremonese
Mantova0 – 0Cremonese
Cremonese1 – 2Mantova
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mantovavs
Cremonese
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.2%→Latest 48.6%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.2%→Latest 53.6%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Mantova's 10 matches and 2 of Cremonese's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?