Empoli vs Palermo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Carlo Castellani
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.05
Draw
3.53
Away Win
1.96
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 4
Match Events ?
Empoli
Palermo
Edoardo Saporiti ⚽ (P)
50'
57'
⚽ Joel Pohjanpalo (Mattia Bani)
Jacopo Seghetti 🟨
57'
65'
⚽ Antonio Palumbo (Dennis Johnsen)
69'
⚽ Dennis Johnsen (Antonio Palumbo)
75'
🟨 Filippo·Ranocchia
Bogdan Popov ⚽ (P)
79'
88'
⚽ Tommaso Cassandro (Alessandro Gabrielloni)
Match Statistics ?
41%
Ball Possession
59%
6
Total Shots
35
2
Shots on Goal
12
1
Corner Kicks
5
10
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
8
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Empoli (3-5-2)
J. Seghetti
M. Curto
S. Romagnoli
C. Cauz
J. Ceesay
L. Magnino
F. Bandinelli
E. Biondini
N. Corrado
B. Popov
E. Saporiti
Palermo (4-2-3-1)
M. Fortin
T. Cassandro
M. Bani
P. Ceccaroni
T. Augello
J. Segre
F. Ranocchia
D. Vavassori
A. Palumbo
D. Johnsen
J. Pohjanpalo
Player Ratings ?
Empoli
B. PopovF7.6
E. SaporitiF6.8
L. DeliM6.7
Palermo
A. PalumboM9.0
D. JohnsenM9.0
J. PohjanpaloF8.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Palermo
Palermo rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; Empoli edge defence, giving Palermo a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Empoli slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Empoli arrive at home with a solid record of three wins and one draw from their last five outings, while Palermo have managed only one victory alongside two draws and two defeats in the same away sample. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have kept just two clean sheets in that identical run. Palermo rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Empoli hold a slight advantage in defence. Palermo won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 7 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Empoli's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Palermo a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Empoli win
Latest market chance 25.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.1% → 25.5%
+0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.5% → 26.7%
+0.2 pts
Palermo win
Latest market chance 47.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
48.4% → 47.8%
−0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Empoli
Draw
Palermo
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
EmpoliPalermo
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
1st
5
Games Played
5
1.20
Points/Game
2.60
0.80
Goals/Game
2.00
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.00
11.6
Shots/Game
18.1
3.7
Shots on Target
6.1
Home vs Away Context
Empoli at home (7 matches) vs Palermo away (7 matches)
0.71
Points/Game
1.86
1.00
Goals/Game
2.43
1.86
Conceded/Game
1.71
14%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Empoli
Home form
W
D
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Palermo
Away form
D
L
L
W
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Empoli Wins
1
Draws
1
Palermo Wins
3
Avg Goals
4.4
Palermo3 – 2Empoli
Empoli1 – 3Palermo
Empoli4 – 0Palermo
Palermo3 – 3Empoli
Palermo2 – 1Empoli
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Empolivs
Palermo
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.30
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.1%→Latest 53.5%−1.6 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.2%→Latest 56.6%−1.6 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Empoli's 10 matches and 5 of Palermo's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?