Cesena vs Empoli Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Dino Manuzzi
Tue 27 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.23
Draw
3.38
Away Win
3.40
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Cesena
Empoli
14'
🟨 Simone Romagnoli
Gianluca Frabotta 🟨
24'
Luca D'Andrea 🟨
31'
Cristian Shpendi (Luca D'Andrea) ⚽
39'
45+3'
🟨 Luca Magnino
62'
⚽ Edoardo Saporiti
Jacopo Seghetti ⚽ (OG)
74'
Alessandro Debenedetti 🟨
79'
Cristian Shpendi 🟨
81'
Vittorio Magni 🟨
89'
90+5'
🟥 Steven Shpendi
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
13
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Goal
5
7
Corner Kicks
5
14
Fouls
15
5
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
4
Offsides
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Cesena (4-2-3-1)
A. Siano
M. Piacentini
J. Gelli
M. Mangraviti
G. Frabotta
D. Bisoli
E. Bohinen
L. D'Andrea
R. Pagano
X. Druiventak
C. Shpendi
Empoli (3-5-2)
J. Seghetti
L. Magnino
S. Romagnoli
C. Cauz
K. Zedadka
E. Biondini
Gerard Yepes
E. Saporiti
N. Corrado
B. Popov
S. Shpendi
Player Ratings ?
Cesena
C. ShpendiF7.7
R. PaganoM7.2
M. PiacentiniD7.1
Empoli
E. SaporitiM7.4
S. ShpendiF6.8
Gerard YepesM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cesena edge attack, Empoli edge recent form and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Empoli slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Cesena slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Empoli stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Empoli have secured just a solitary victory from their last five away fixtures across multiple campaigns, while Cesena have remained unbeaten at home with five draws in their recent outings. Cesena have found the net in each of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Empoli rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while Cesena hold a slight advantage in attack, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 28 February 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Cesena's implied win probability has fallen by 4.0 percentage points, while Empoli's implied win probability has risen by 3.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Cesena
Cesena's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Cesena win as less likely than it did 2 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cesena win
Latest market chance 42.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
46.5% → 42.5%
−4.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.9% → 28.0%
+1.1 pts
Empoli win
Latest market chance 29.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
26.5% → 29.5%
+3.0 pts
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CesenaEmpoli
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
17th
8
Games Played
8
1.00
Points/Game
0.88
1.00
Goals/Game
0.88
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.62
13.0
Shots/Game
11.6
3.5
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Cesena at home (7 matches) vs Empoli away (6 matches)
1.57
Points/Game
0.83
1.29
Goals/Game
1.17
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.67
29%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cesena
Home form
D
D
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Empoli
Away form
D
L
W
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cesena Wins
0
Draws
1
Empoli Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.6
Empoli1 – 1Cesena
Cesena0 – 1Empoli
Cesena2 – 3Empoli
Empoli5 – 3Cesena
Empoli2 – 0Cesena
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cesenavs
Empoli
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.70
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.9%→Latest 50.6%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.0%→Latest 56.1%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Cesena's 10 matches and 1 of Empoli's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?