Cesena vs Avellino Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Dino Manuzzi
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.37
Draw
3.13
Away Win
3.43
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Cesena
Avellino
13'
🟨 Brando Moruzzi
Alessandro Diamanti 🟥
45'
Antonio Fiori (Cristian Shpendi) ⚽
51'
67'
⚽ Armando Izzo
Emil Bohinen 🟨
83'
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
18
Total Shots
20
6
Shots on Goal
4
7
Corner Kicks
5
14
Fouls
6
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Cesena (4-2-3-1)
A. Siano
A. Ciofi
M. Ilić
J. Gelli
G. Frabotta
D. Bisoli
E. Bohinen
L. D'Andrea
R. Pagano
A. Fiori
C. Shpendi
Avellino (3-5-2)
T. Martinelli
A. Izzo
M. Venturi
P. Enrici
F. Missori
M. Palumbo
L. Palmiero
M. Besaggio
B. Moruzzi
R. Russo
W. Cheddira
Player Ratings ?
Cesena
A. FioriM8.0
C. ShpendiF7.6
J. GelliD7.1
Avellino
A. IzzoD8.6
P. EnriciD7.2
M. VenturiD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cesena edge head-to-head, Avellino edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Avellino stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Avellino slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Avellino stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Cesena slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Avellino have secured two wins from their last five away fixtures, while Cesena remain winless at home with four draws and a solitary defeat in the same span. Cesena have found the net in four of their last five home outings but have only kept one clean sheet during that period. Avellino rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while Cesena hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. Avellino won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 31 January 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Cesena's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cesena win
Latest market chance 40.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
40.7% → 40.7%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.7% → 29.7%
±0.0 pts
Avellino win
Latest market chance 29.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.6% → 29.6%
±0.0 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
7 snapshots
+1.5+0.750−0.75Oct 12Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16Oct 18
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Cesena
Draw
Avellino
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Cesena
Avellino
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
8th
6
Games Played
6
1.17
Points/Game
1.67
1.17
Goals/Game
1.83
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.17
13.0
Shots/Game
14.0
3.5
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Cesena at home (7 matches) vs Avellino away (6 matches)
1.57
Points/Game
1.17
1.29
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.17
29%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cesena
Home form
L
D
D
D
D
Winless in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Avellino
Away form
L
L
W
L
D
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cesena Wins
2
Draws
2
Avellino Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
2026-10-172026-2027
Cesena1 – 1Avellino
2026-01-312025-2026
Avellino3 – 1Cesena
2025-11-092025-2026
Cesena3 – 0Avellino
2018-02-102017-2018
Avellino1 – 1Cesena
2017-09-152017-2018
Cesena3 – 1Avellino
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cesena
vs
Avellino
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.20
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
74.7%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
50.0%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
29.0%
BTTSBoth teams score
55.1%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.6%→Latest 51.9%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.2%→Latest 57.2%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
3 of Cesena's 10 matches and 2 of Avellino's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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