Catanzaro vs Padova Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.42
Draw
3.40
Away Win
3.03
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Catanzaro
Padova
Antonio Candela 🟨
15'
27'
🟨 Giovanni·Giunti
Mehdi Dorval ⚽
27'
52'
🟨 Alessandro Dellavalle
66'
⚽ Kevin Varas (Alessandro Capelli)
G. Arditi 🟨
82'
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
25
Total Shots
5
5
Shots on Goal
1
11
Corner Kicks
2
13
Fouls
8
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Catanzaro (3-5-2)
M. Pigliacelli
R. Frosinini
Matias Antonini
M. Imperiale
A. Candela
F. Tchaouna
J. Petriccione
G. Alesi
M. Dorval
N. Koffi
P. Iemmello
Padova (4-4-2)
A. Sorrentino
Alessandro Dellavalle
F. Sgarbi
M. Lovato
L. Carissoni
A. Capelli
P. Fusi
G. Giunti
K. Varas
G. Artistico
L. Moro
Player Ratings ?
Catanzaro
M. DorvalM7.8
J. PetriccioneM7.2
M. ImperialeD7.1
Padova
K. VarasM8.0
A. CapelliM7.5
G. GiuntiM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Padova
Padova rate stronger in recent form and defence; Catanzaro edge head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving Padova a slight edge.
Leads 2 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Padova stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Padova stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Catanzaro slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Padova boast a more encouraging recent record away from home with three wins in their last five outings, whereas Catanzaro have suffered four defeats during that same span at this venue. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches but have only kept a clean sheet once in that period. Padova rate stronger on form and defence, while Catanzaro hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Catanzaro won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 14 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters to Padova's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.5 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Catanzaro's implied win probability has fallen by 5.3 percentage points, while Padova's implied win probability has risen by 4.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Padova a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Catanzaro losing run
53%
Catanzaro yellow cards after 75'
3
Catanzaro points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Catanzaro
Catanzaro's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Catanzaro win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Catanzaro win
Latest market chance 40.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
45.9% → 40.6%
−5.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.5% → 27.7%
+1.2 pts
Padova win
Latest market chance 31.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
27.7% → 31.8%
+4.1 pts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CatanzaroPadova
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
8th
9
Games Played
9
0.56
Points/Game
1.44
1.11
Goals/Game
1.00
2.33
Conceded/Game
1.11
13.9
Shots/Game
10.9
4.1
Shots on Target
3.2
Home vs Away Context
Catanzaro at home (5 matches) vs Padova away (5 matches)
0.80
Points/Game
1.40
1.00
Goals/Game
1.00
2.60
Conceded/Game
1.20
20%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Catanzaro
Home form
L
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Padova
Away form
W
W
L
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Catanzaro Wins
1
Draws
0
Padova Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.5
Padova1 – 3Catanzaro
Catanzaro0 – 1Padova
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Catanzarovs
Padova
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
0.90
2.30
Goals conceded / game
1.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.1%→Latest 54.4%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.8%→Latest 58.6%+2.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?