Catanzaro vs Ascoli Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.56
Draw
3.18
Away Win
2.90
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 6
Match Events ?
Catanzaro
Ascoli
N'Dri Koffi (Federico Di Francesco) ⚽
18'
21'
⚽ Gabriele Gori (Andrea·Silipo)
32'
⚽ Gennao Acampora (Simone D'Uffizi)
36'
⚽ Federico Gattoni (Andrea Oliveri)
39'
🟨 Federico Gattoni
45+1'
⚽ Giovanni Corradini (Gabriele Gori)
53'
⚽ Tommaso Milanese
76'
⚽ Gabriele Gori (Sergiu Perciun)
Gabriele Alesi 🟨
81'
90+2'
🟨 Gabriele Gori
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
17
Total Shots
24
8
Shots on Goal
10
5
Corner Kicks
9
14
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Catanzaro (3-4-2-1)
M. Pigliacelli
M. Ruggero
Matias Antonini
M. Imperiale
A. Candela
F. Tchaouna
J. Petriccione
F. Di Francesco
S. Pafundi
P. Iemmello
N. Koffi
Ascoli (4-2-3-1)
S. Vitale
A. Oliveri
F. Gattoni
N. Rizzo
A. Guiébré
G. Corradini
S. Damiani
A. Silipo
G. Acampora
S. D'Uffizi
G. Gori
Player Ratings ?
Catanzaro
N. KoffiF7.7
F. Di FrancescoM6.8
N. BusoF6.6
Ascoli
G. GoriF9.7
S. VitaleG8.1
G. CorradiniM7.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Ascoli
Ascoli rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; Catanzaro edge attack, giving Ascoli a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ascoli stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Catanzaro stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ascoli stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ascoli stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Ascoli arrive with a mixed away record from their last five outings, managing two wins and two draws alongside a solitary defeat, while Catanzaro have struggled at home in the same span with three losses offsetting just two victories. Catanzaro have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that identical period. Ascoli rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Catanzaro rate stronger on attack. Catanzaro won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 10 February 2024, having won 1 of the last 4 encounters to Ascoli's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Catanzaro's implied win probability has fallen by 2.7 percentage points, while Ascoli's implied win probability has risen by 2.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Ascoli a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Catanzaro losing run
4/4
One-goal H2H results
53%
Catanzaro yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Catanzaro
Catanzaro's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Catanzaro win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Catanzaro win
Latest market chance 35.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
38.3% → 35.6%
−2.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.7% → 29.3%
+0.6 pts
Ascoli win
Latest market chance 35.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
33.0% → 35.1%
+2.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Catanzaro
Draw
Ascoli
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CatanzaroAscoli
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
6th
7
Games Played
7
0.57
Points/Game
1.71
1.14
Goals/Game
1.14
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.71
13.9
Shots/Game
13.4
4.1
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Catanzaro at home (5 matches) vs Ascoli away (6 matches)
0.80
Points/Game
1.50
1.00
Goals/Game
1.33
2.60
Conceded/Game
0.50
20%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Catanzaro
Home form
W
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ascoli
Away form
W
D
W
L
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Catanzaro Wins
1
Draws
0
Ascoli Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.0
Catanzaro3 – 2Ascoli
Ascoli1 – 0Catanzaro
Catanzaro2 – 3Ascoli
Ascoli1 – 0Catanzaro
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Catanzarovs
Ascoli
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.90
Goals conceded / game
0.90
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.3%→Latest 54.4%−1.9 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.5%→Latest 59.3%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Catanzaro's 10 matches and 3 of Ascoli's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?