Carrarese vs Modena Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio dei Marmi
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.92
Draw
3.56
Away Win
1.79
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Carrarese
Modena
Fabio abiuso (Gabriele parlanti) ⚽
1'
Fabio Andrea 🟨
25'
Jonas Rouhi 🟨
28'
Fabio abiuso 🟨
51'
Tommaso Rubino (Fabio abiuso) ⚽
52'
76'
⚽ Andrea Belotti (Giacomo Olzer)
Guido Pagliuca 🟥
88'
90'
🟨 Giuseppe Caso
90+1'
🟨 Simone Santoro
G. Marconi 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
9
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
8
19
Fouls
14
4
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Carrarese (3-5-2)
S. Pizzignacco
F. Ruggeri
F. Oliana
F. Reale
N. Belloni
G. Parlanti
Nicolás Schiavi
M. Braunöder
J. Rouhi
F. Abiuso
T. Rubino
Modena (3-5-2)
L. Chichizola
D. Tonoli
S. Nador
B. Nieling
Paulo Azzi
S. Santoro
G. Brugman
A. Bianco
F. Zampano
G. Caso
G. Ambrosino
Player Ratings ?
Carrarese
T. RubinoF8.2
F. AbiusoF7.9
G. ParlantiM7.2
Modena
A. BelottiF7.3
A. BiancoM7.2
F. ZampanoM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Modena
Modena rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Modena a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Modena stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Modena stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Modena stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Modena have secured two away wins from their last five outings, while Carrarese remain winless at home with just two draws in that same span. Carrarese have found the net in only two of their last five home matches and have kept a clean sheet merely once during that period. Modena rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Modena won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 14 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 4 encounters to Carrarese's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.75 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Carrarese's implied win probability has fallen by 0.6 percentage points, while Modena's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Modena a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Carrarese losing run
2
Carrarese points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Modena
Modena's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Modena win as more likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Carrarese win
Latest market chance 21.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.5% → 21.9%
−0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.6% → 26.4%
−0.2 pts
Modena win
Latest market chance 51.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
50.9% → 51.7%
+0.8 pts
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CarrareseModena
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
3rd
6
Games Played
6
0.67
Points/Game
2.17
0.67
Goals/Game
1.83
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
13.0
Shots/Game
17.9
3.4
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away Context
Carrarese at home (7 matches) vs Modena away (6 matches)
1.29
Points/Game
2.17
1.00
Goals/Game
1.83
1.14
Conceded/Game
0.83
43%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Carrarese
Home form
D
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Modena
Away form
L
L
W
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Carrarese Wins
1
Draws
1
Modena Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
Modena2 – 0Carrarese
Carrarese0 – 0Modena
Carrarese2 – 1Modena
Modena2 – 0Carrarese
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Carraresevs
Modena
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.10
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
5/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.7%→Latest 53.1%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.8%→Latest 54.7%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Carrarese's 10 matches and 3 of Modena's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?