Avellino vs Sampdoria Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Fri 09 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.82
Draw
3.05
Away Win
2.85
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Avellino
Sampdoria
Walid Cheddira (Brando Moruzzi) ⚽
12'
18'
⚽ Lorenzo Insigne (Tobias Lauritsen)
Martin Palumbo (Raffaele Russo) ⚽
20'
Raffaele Russo (Brando Moruzzi) ⚽
24'
Michele Besaggio ⚽
29'
Michael Venturi 🟨
71'
77'
🟨 Alex Ferrari
Andrea Favilli 🟨
81'
Armando Izzo 🟨
90+1'
Michele Besaggio 🟨
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
9
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Goal
3
0
Corner Kicks
6
11
Fouls
12
4
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Avellino (3-5-2)
T. Martinelli
A. Izzo
M. Venturi
P. Enrici
F. Missori
M. Palumbo
L. Palmiero
M. Besaggio
B. Moruzzi
R. Russo
W. Cheddira
Sampdoria (4-3-2-1)
P. Vindahl
A. Di Pardo
S. Gartenmann
F. Delli Carri
M. Cicconi
L. Henderson
A. Makoumbou
Y. Verschaeren
Yann Karamoh
L. Insigne
T. Lauritsen
Player Ratings ?
Avellino
B. MoruzziM8.6
R. RussoF8.5
M. BesaggioM7.9
Sampdoria
L. InsigneM7.2
T. LauritsenF7.1
A. MakoumbouM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Avellino edge recent form, attack and defence, Sampdoria edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Avellino stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Avellino slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Avellino stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sampdoria slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sampdoria arrive at Avellino having endured a difficult run away from home with just two draws and three losses in their last five outings, while the hosts have enjoyed a much more positive spell domestically with three wins and one draw from their last five matches. At home, Avellino have scored in five of their last five matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that same period. Avellino rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while Sampdoria hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. Sampdoria won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 22 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters to Avellino's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Avellino's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Sampdoria's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Sampdoria losing run
2
Sampdoria points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Sampdoria
Sampdoria's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Sampdoria win as less likely than it did 3 days ago. Avellino remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Avellino win
Latest market chance 35.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
34.2% → 35.0%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.6% → 30.3%
+0.7 pts
Sampdoria win
Latest market chance 34.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
36.3% → 34.7%
−1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Avellino
Draw
Sampdoria
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AvellinoSampdoria
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
18th
5
Games Played
5
1.40
Points/Game
0.80
1.40
Goals/Game
1.00
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.80
14.0
Shots/Game
13.7
4.5
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Avellino at home (8 matches) vs Sampdoria away (8 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.62
2.12
Goals/Game
0.75
0.75
Conceded/Game
2.12
62%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Avellino
Home form
W
W
L
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sampdoria
Away form
D
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Avellino Wins
1
Draws
0
Sampdoria Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
Sampdoria2 – 1Avellino
Avellino2 – 1Sampdoria
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Avellinovs
Sampdoria
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
0.80
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.40
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.2%→Latest 48.1%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.6%→Latest 54.1%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Avellino's 10 matches and 5 of Sampdoria's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?