Avellino vs Padova Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.19
Draw
3.30
Away Win
3.43
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Avellino
Padova
20'
⚽ Emanuele Zuelli (Gabriele Artistico)
41'
🟨 Giovanni·Giunti
41'
🟨 Pietro Fusi
Match Statistics ?
69%
Ball Possession
31%
28
Total Shots
8
7
Shots on Goal
1
11
Corner Kicks
2
6
Fouls
14
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Avellino (3-5-2)
T. Martinelli
A. Di Bitonto
M. Venturi
P. Enrici
F. Missori
M. Palumbo
L. Palmiero
M. Besaggio
B. Moruzzi
W. Cheddira
R. Russo
Padova (3-5-2)
A. Sorrentino
F. Sgarbi
M. Lovato
Alessandro Dellavalle
L. Carissoni
E. Zuelli
G. Giunti
P. Fusi
A. Capelli
L. Moro
G. Artistico
Player Ratings ?
Avellino
P. EnriciD7.4
M. VenturiD7.4
L. Di MaggioM7.2
Padova
A. SorrentinoG8.6
E. ZuelliM8.2
Alessandro DellavalleD7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Avellino
Avellino rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Avellino a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Avellino stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Avellino stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Avellino stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Avellino stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Padova have secured just two wins from their last five away outings, while Avellino have recorded three victories and a single draw in their most recent five home fixtures. Avellino have found the net in all five of their latest home matches but have managed just one clean sheet during that same period. Avellino rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Avellino won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 7 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 4 encounters to Padova's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.75 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Avellino's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Padova's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Avellino a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/4
One-goal H2H results
47%
Avellino yellow cards after 75'
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Padova
Padova's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Padova win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Avellino remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Avellino win
Latest market chance 43.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
42.7% → 43.5%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.8% → 29.4%
+0.6 pts
Padova win
Latest market chance 27.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
28.5% → 27.1%
−1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Avellino
Draw
Padova
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AvellinoPadova
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
16th
7
Games Played
7
1.57
Points/Game
1.00
1.71
Goals/Game
0.86
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.43
14.0
Shots/Game
10.9
4.5
Shots on Target
3.2
Home vs Away Context
Avellino at home (8 matches) vs Padova away (5 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.40
2.12
Goals/Game
1.00
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.20
62%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Avellino
Home form
L
W
D
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Padova
Away form
L
W
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Avellino Wins
2
Draws
1
Padova Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.8
Avellino1 – 0Padova
Padova2 – 2Avellino
Padova2 – 1Avellino
Avellino2 – 1Padova
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Avellinovs
Padova
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.9%→Latest 46.3%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.4%→Latest 51.6%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Avellino's 10 matches and 2 of Padova's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?