Ascoli vs Palermo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Cino e Lillo Del Duca
Fri 06 Nov 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.21
Draw
3.44
Away Win
2.30
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Ascoli
Palermo
Matteo Brunori (Abdoul Guiebre) ⚽
19'
55'
⚽ Filippo·Ranocchia (Tommaso Cassandro)
75'
🟨 Nahuel Estévez
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
10
Total Shots
18
3
Shots on Goal
5
5
Corner Kicks
2
7
Fouls
12
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Ascoli (3-5-2)
S. Vitale
L. Venuti
M. Curado
N. Rizzo
A. Silipo
T. Milanese
G. Corradini
G. Acampora
A. Guiébré
Matteo Brunori
S. D'Uffizi
Palermo (4-2-3-1)
M. Perin
T. Cassandro
P. Peda
P. Ceccaroni
T. Augello
N. Estévez
J. Segre
D. Vavassori
Hernani
D. Johnsen
J. Pohjanpalo
Player Ratings ?
Ascoli
Matteo BrunoriNone7.8
A. GuiébréM7.7
S. VitaleG7.5
Palermo
F. RanocchiaM8.2
T. AugelloD7.5
A. GabrielloniF7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ascoli edge defence, Palermo edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ascoli stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Palermo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Palermo have enjoyed a solid away run with two victories and three draws from their last five outings, while Ascoli remain unbeaten at home in that same span with three wins and two draws. Ascoli have found the net in each of their last five home matches but have kept just two clean sheets during that identical period. Palermo rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Ascoli rate stronger on defence. The most recent meeting, on 5 May 2024, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Ascoli's implied win probability has fallen by 4.0 percentage points, while Palermo's implied win probability has risen by 4.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Palermo unbeaten run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Palermo
Palermo's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Palermo win as more likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ascoli win
Latest market chance 30.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
34.5% → 30.5%
−4.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.6% → 27.1%
−0.5 pts
Palermo win
Latest market chance 42.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
37.9% → 42.4%
+4.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ascoli
Draw
Palermo
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AscoliPalermo
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
1st
10
Games Played
10
1.90
Points/Game
2.60
1.60
Goals/Game
2.40
0.60
Conceded/Game
1.20
13.4
Shots/Game
18.1
4.4
Shots on Target
6.1
Home vs Away Context
Ascoli at home (6 matches) vs Palermo away (7 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.86
1.50
Goals/Game
2.43
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.71
50%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ascoli
Home form
D
W
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Palermo
Away form
D
W
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ascoli Wins
1
Draws
1
Palermo Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.2
Palermo2 – 2Ascoli
Ascoli0 – 1Palermo
Ascoli1 – 2Palermo
Palermo2 – 3Ascoli
Ascoli1 – 2Palermo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ascolivs
Palermo
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
2.50
0.50
Goals conceded / game
1.40
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.5%→Latest 58.2%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.1%→Latest 61.8%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?