Ascoli vs Empoli Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Cino e Lillo Del Duca
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.88
Draw
3.49
Away Win
4.46
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Ascoli
Empoli
14'
⚽ Joseph Ceesay
Nicholas Rizzo (Matteo Brunori) ⚽
26'
90'
🟨 Luca Magnino
Abdoul Guiebre 🟨
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
9
Total Shots
16
2
Shots on Goal
3
6
Corner Kicks
8
11
Fouls
17
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Ascoli (4-2-3-1)
S. Vitale
A. Oliveri
M. Curado
N. Rizzo
A. Guiébré
G. Corradini
S. Damiani
A. Silipo
G. Acampora
S. D'Uffizi
Matteo Brunori
Empoli (3-5-2)
J. Seghetti
L. Magnino
M. Curto
C. Cauz
K. Zedadka
E. Biondini
Gerard Yepes
E. Saporiti
N. Corrado
B. Popov
J. Ceesay
Player Ratings ?
Ascoli
N. RizzoD7.7
S. DamianiM7.2
Matteo BrunoriNone7.0
Empoli
J. CeesayF7.7
S. ShpendiF6.9
L. BelardinelliM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Ascoli
Ascoli rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Ascoli a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ascoli stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Ascoli stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Ascoli stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ascoli stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Empoli have recorded just one win and one draw from their last five away fixtures across multiple seasons, while Ascoli boast a more robust home record with three victories and only a solitary defeat in that same span. At home, Ascoli have found the net in four of their last five outings but have managed just one clean sheet during that period. Ascoli rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2021. Over the 6-day comparison window, Ascoli's implied win probability has risen by 1.3 percentage points, while Empoli's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Ascoli a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Ascoli
Ascoli's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Ascoli win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ascoli win
Latest market chance 49.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
47.7% → 49.0%
+1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.5% → 27.0%
−0.5 pts
Empoli win
Latest market chance 23.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
24.8% → 23.9%
−0.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ascoli
Draw
Empoli
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AscoliEmpoli
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
16th
6
Games Played
6
1.83
Points/Game
1.00
1.17
Goals/Game
1.00
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.67
13.4
Shots/Game
11.6
4.4
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Ascoli at home (6 matches) vs Empoli away (6 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.83
1.50
Goals/Game
1.17
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.67
50%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ascoli
Home form
L
W
D
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Empoli
Away form
L
D
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ascoli Wins
2
Draws
1
Empoli Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Ascoli2 – 0Empoli
Empoli1 – 1Ascoli
Ascoli1 – 0Empoli
Empoli2 – 1Ascoli
Ascoli1 – 2Empoli
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ascolivs
Empoli
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.00
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.50
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.3%→Latest 51.9%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 54.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
4 of Ascoli's 10 matches and 4 of Empoli's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?