Udinese vs Lecce Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Bluenergy Stadium
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.83
Draw
3.59
Away Win
4.76
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
Udinese
Lecce
11'
⚽ Kialonda Gaspar (Antonino Gallo)
33'
⚽ Konan N'Dri (Tiago Gabriel)
Hassane Kamara 🟨
43'
86'
⚽ Jamil Siebert
Match Statistics ?
67%
Ball Possession
33%
14
Total Shots
17
2
Shots on Goal
11
1
Corner Kicks
4
10
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
8
8
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Udinese (3-4-2-1)
M. Okoye
O. Solet
D. Alaba
E. Ebosse
M. Vojvoda
J. Karlström
Oier Zarraga
H. Kamara
J. Ekkelenkamp
G. Chakvetadze
K. Davis
Lecce (4-3-3)
W. Falcone
Danilo Veiga
Kialonda Gaspar
Tiago Gabriel
A. Gallo
L. Coulibaly
O. Ngom
Y. Maleh
K. N’Dri
W. Geubbels
A. Ahmed Fatah
Player Ratings ?
Udinese
M. OkoyeG7.3
O. SoletD6.7
M. PalmaD6.6
Lecce
K. N’DriF8.2
Kialonda GasparD8.1
Tiago GabrielD7.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Udinese edge attack, defence and head-to-head, Lecce edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lecce stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Udinese slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Udinese slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Udinese stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lecce have secured three wins from their last five away outings, while Udinese have managed just a solitary victory in that same span at home. Udinese have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that period. Both squads carry injury concerns, with Udinese facing four confirmed absences and two doubts alongside Lecce's single certain absence and two doubtful players. Lecce rate stronger on form, while Udinese rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack and defence. Lecce won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 8 February 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Udinese's 4, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 14-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Lecce
Lecce's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lecce win as less likely than it did 14 days ago. Udinese remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Udinese win
Latest market chance 52.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
50.6% → 52.6%
+2.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.6% → 27.0%
+0.4 pts
Lecce win
Latest market chance 20.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
22.8% → 20.4%
−2.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Udinese
Draw
Lecce
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
UdineseLecce
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
13th
6
Games Played
6
0.67
Points/Game
1.00
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
2.17
Conceded/Game
2.00
14.5
Shots/Game
12.1
4.5
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Udinese at home (6 matches) vs Lecce away (6 matches)
0.17
Points/Game
1.17
0.67
Goals/Game
1.17
2.33
Conceded/Game
1.67
0%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Udinese
Home form
W
L
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lecce
Away form
W
W
W
L
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Udinese Wins
4
Draws
0
Lecce Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Lecce2 – 1Udinese
Udinese3 – 2Lecce
Lecce0 – 1Udinese
Udinese1 – 0Lecce
Lecce0 – 2Udinese
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Udinesevs
Lecce
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.60
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.3%→Latest 47.4%−1.9 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.2%→Latest 50.0%−2.2 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Udinese's 10 matches and 4 of Lecce's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?