Torino vs Monza Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.14
Draw
3.40
Away Win
3.67
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Torino
Monza
Ardian Ismajli 🟨
34'
Kian Fitz-Jim (Giovanni Simeone) ⚽
39'
47'
⚽ Gustavo Varela
Rafik Belghali (Gvidas Gineitis) ⚽
61'
Nikola Vlašić ⚽
72'
90+4'
⚽ (OG) Nathan Patterson
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
17
Total Shots
7
7
Shots on Goal
3
3
Corner Kicks
4
8
Fouls
4
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Torino (3-4-2-1)
Lucas Perri
Saúl Coco
A. Ismajli
P. Comuzzo
R. Belghali
R. Mandragora
K. Fitz-Jim
A. Cacciamani
N. Vlašić
C. Adams
G. Simeone
Monza (3-4-2-1)
N. Törnqvist
S. Goglichidze
L. Lucchesi
A. Carboni
S. Birindelli
M. Ondoa
E. Akinsanmiro
Ricardo Mangas
Dany Mota
Jay Robinson
Gustavo Varela
Player Ratings ?
Torino
N. VlašićM8.2
R. BelghaliM7.7
K. Fitz-JimM7.7
Monza
Gustavo VarelaF7.5
C. NgongeF6.8
N. TörnqvistG6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Torino edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, Monza edge attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Torino stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Monza slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Torino stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Torino stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Torino have secured two victories from their last five home outings, whereas Monza have managed only a solitary draw across their last five away fixtures. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches at this venue but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those same five contests. Torino face seven confirmed absences alongside one player listed as doubtful, while Monza have just three players unavailable with no doubts attached to their squad. Torino rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Monza hold a slight advantage in attack. Torino won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 2 March 2025, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Monza's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Torino's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points, while Monza's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Torino
Torino's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Torino win as less likely than it did 11 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Torino win
Latest market chance 44.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
45.3% → 44.3%
−1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.8% → 27.9%
+0.1 pts
Monza win
Latest market chance 27.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.9% → 27.8%
+0.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Torino
Draw
Monza
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
TorinoMonza
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
14th
7
Games Played
7
1.43
Points/Game
1.00
1.43
Goals/Game
1.86
1.29
Conceded/Game
2.14
10.6
Shots/Game
13.4
3.5
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away Context
Torino at home (7 matches) vs Monza away (6 matches)
1.43
Points/Game
0.17
1.43
Goals/Game
1.33
1.71
Conceded/Game
2.67
43%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Torino
Home form
D
L
L
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Monza
Away form
L
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Torino Wins
2
Draws
3
Monza Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.8
Monza0 – 2Torino
Torino1 – 1Monza
Torino1 – 0Monza
Monza1 – 1Torino
Torino1 – 1Monza
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Torinovs
Monza
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.20
Goals conceded / game
2.00
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.7%→Latest 49.2%+2.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.5%→Latest 53.5%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Torino's 10 matches and 2 of Monza's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?