Sassuolo vs Milan Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.23
Draw
3.78
Away Win
1.87
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Sassuolo
Milan
41'
🟨 Pervis Estupinan
45+3'
🟨 Koni De Winter
63'
⚽ Adrien Rabiot (Luka Modrić)
Cas Odenthal ⚽
68'
87'
🟨 Gonçalo Ramos
90+1'
🟨 Strahinja Pavlovic
Kristian Thorstvedt 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
41%
Ball Possession
59%
10
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Goal
6
3
Corner Kicks
5
13
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Sassuolo (4-3-3)
A. Murić
I. Van der Brempt
D. Ćaleta-Car
F. Leysen
J. Doig
Vasilije Adžić
N. Matić
D. Bakola
D. Berardi
S. Esposito
A. Laurienté
Milan (4-4-1-1)
M. Maignan
Mario Gila
M. Gabbia
S. Pavlović
P. Estupiñán
S. Chukwueze
Y. Musah
A. Rabiot
Diego Moreira
C. Pulišić
Gonçalo Ramos
Player Ratings ?
Sassuolo
C. OdenthalD8.4
A. MurićG7.8
K. BowieF7.1
Milan
A. RabiotM7.9
Diego MoreiraM7.2
Mario GilaD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sassuolo edge attack and head-to-head, Milan edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sassuolo slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sassuolo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Milan have managed just two wins from their last five away fixtures across seasons, whereas Sassuolo boast a more convincing record with four victories in their last five home outings. Sassuolo have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that same spell. The hosts face significant selection headaches with sixteen players unavailable and two others doubtful, while the visitors remain largely intact with just a single absentee. Milan rate stronger on form and defence, while Sassuolo rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Sassuolo won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 3 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Milan's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Sassuolo's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points, while Milan's implied win probability has fallen by 1.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
50%
Milan yellow cards after 75'
12
Sassuolo points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Milan
Milan's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Milan win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sassuolo win
Latest market chance 23.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
21.5% → 23.0%
+1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.1% → 25.5%
+0.4 pts
Milan win
Latest market chance 51.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
53.4% → 51.5%
−1.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sassuolo
Draw
Milan
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SassuoloMilan
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
5th
5
Games Played
5
1.40
Points/Game
2.20
1.80
Goals/Game
2.00
1.80
Conceded/Game
0.80
12.6
Shots/Game
11.5
4.5
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Sassuolo at home (5 matches) vs Milan away (6 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
2.00
2.00
Goals/Game
1.67
2.80
Conceded/Game
1.00
40%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sassuolo
Home form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Milan
Away form
L
W
W
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sassuolo Wins
2
Draws
2
Milan Wins
1
Avg Goals
4.0
Sassuolo2 – 0Milan
Milan2 – 2Sassuolo
Sassuolo3 – 3Milan
Milan1 – 0Sassuolo
Milan2 – 5Sassuolo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sassuolovs
Milan
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.4%→Latest 54.4%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.7%→Latest 56.3%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Sassuolo's 10 matches and 5 of Milan's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?