Sassuolo vs Lazio Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Tue 27 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.30
Draw
3.66
Away Win
2.19
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 6
Match Events ?
Sassuolo
Lazio
2'
⚽ Kenneth Taylor
Josip Šutalo ⚽ (OG)
7'
13'
⚽ Gustav Isaksen (Mattia Zaccagni)
16'
⚽ Romano Floriani Mussolini (Kenneth Taylor)
28'
🟨 Kenneth Taylor
Kristian Thorstvedt 🟥
31'
Sebastiano Esposito (Simone Cinquegrano) ⚽
43'
45+1'
⚽ Mattia Zaccagni (Gustav Isaksen)
50'
• Mattia Zaccagni
Domenico Berardi 🟨
54'
55'
⚽ Tijjani Noslin (Mattia Zaccagni)
61'
• Davide Frattesi
65'
⚽ Tijjani Noslin (Fisayo Dele-Bashiru)
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
9
Total Shots
16
1
Shots on Goal
8
2
Corner Kicks
1
7
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
1
1
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Sassuolo (4-3-3)
S. Turati
S. Cinquegrano
C. Odenthal
D. Ćaleta-Car
J. Doig
K. Thorstvedt
L. Lipani
D. Bakola
D. Berardi
S. Esposito
A. Laurienté
Lazio (4-3-3)
C. Mandas
R. Floriani Mussolini
J. Šutalo
Diogo Leite
Nuno Tavares
D. Frattesi
R. Belahyane
K. Taylor
G. Isaksen
T. Noslin
M. Zaccagni
Player Ratings ?
Sassuolo
S. EspositoF7.7
I. SulemanaM6.6
J. DoigD6.5
Lazio
M. ZaccagniF9.5
T. NoslinF8.8
G. IsaksenF8.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Lazio
Lazio rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving Lazio an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lazio have enjoyed an impressive run away from home with four wins in their last five outings, whereas Sassuolo have secured three victories and a draw at home during the same period. Sassuolo have found the net in every one of their last five home matches but have only kept a clean sheet once in that span. There are fifteen players unavailable for Sassuolo and seven for Lazio ahead of this Serie A clash. Lazio rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Lazio won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 9 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Sassuolo's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Sassuolo's implied win probability has fallen by 4.8 percentage points, while Lazio's implied win probability has risen by 5.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Lazio.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Lazio
Lazio's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Lazio win as more likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sassuolo win
Latest market chance 29.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
33.8% → 29.1%
−4.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
27.8% → 27.0%
−0.8 pts
Lazio win
Latest market chance 43.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
38.3% → 43.9%
+5.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sassuolo
Draw
Lazio
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SassuoloLazio
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
2nd
8
Games Played
8
1.00
Points/Game
2.75
1.50
Goals/Game
2.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.62
12.6
Shots/Game
13.9
4.5
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Sassuolo at home (5 matches) vs Lazio away (6 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
2.67
2.00
Goals/Game
2.50
2.80
Conceded/Game
0.67
40%
Win Rate
83%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sassuolo
Home form
W
L
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lazio
Away form
L
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sassuolo Wins
1
Draws
1
Lazio Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.0
Lazio2 – 1Sassuolo
Sassuolo1 – 0Lazio
Lazio1 – 1Sassuolo
Sassuolo0 – 2Lazio
Lazio2 – 0Sassuolo
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sassuolovs
Lazio
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.80
2.10
Goals conceded / game
0.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.5%→Latest 56.7%+2.2 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 60.9%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Sassuolo's 10 matches and 2 of Lazio's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?