Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Mon 02 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.93
Draw
3.75
Away Win
2.37
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 4
Match Events ?
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Armand Lauriente (Sebastiano Esposito) ⚽
25'
Ibrahim Sulemana 🟨
40'
42'
🟨 Radu Drăguşin
44'
🟨 Alieu Njie
45+2'
⚽ Mateo Pellegrino (Alieu Njie)
50'
⚽ Alieu Njie (Marco Brescianini)
Armand Lauriente (Nemanja Matić) ⚽
65'
79'
⚽ Franco Mastantuono (Pedro Goncalves)
90+2'
🟨 Wilfried Gnonto
90+3'
⚽ Víctor Valdepeñas Talavera (Cher Ndour)
Gabriel Kulla 🟨
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
7
Total Shots
15
2
Shots on Goal
6
5
Corner Kicks
3
12
Fouls
15
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Sassuolo (4-3-3)
S. Turati
S. Walukiewicz
J. Idzes
Fali Candé
J. Doig
Vasilije Adžić
N. Matić
I. Sulemana
D. Berardi
S. Esposito
A. Laurienté
Fiorentina (4-3-3)
David de Gea
Álex Jiménez
R. Drăgușin
Viery
João Mário
C. Ndour
N. Fagioli
M. Brescianini
Franco Mastantuono
Mateo Pellegrino
A. Njie
Player Ratings ?
Sassuolo
A. LaurientéF9.2
N. MatićM7.7
S. EspositoF6.9
Fiorentina
A. NjieF8.4
Franco MastantuonoF8.2
Mateo PellegrinoF8.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Sassuolo edge recent form and head-to-head, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sassuolo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sassuolo stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Fiorentina have struggled on the road with just a solitary win from their last five away fixtures, while Sassuolo look more consistent at home with two victories and a draw in their recent outings. Sassuolo have found the net in every one of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Both squads face significant selection headaches ahead of kickoff, with Sassuolo carrying nine unavailable players and Fiorentina having six out of action for the fixture. Sassuolo rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 26 April 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Sassuolo's implied win probability has fallen by 3.1 percentage points, while Fiorentina's implied win probability has risen by 4.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Fiorentina losing run
3
Fiorentina points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Fiorentina
Fiorentina's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Fiorentina win as more likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sassuolo win
Latest market chance 33.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
36.6% → 33.5%
−3.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.9% → 26.0%
−0.9 pts
Fiorentina win
Latest market chance 40.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
36.5% → 40.5%
+4.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sassuolo
Draw
Fiorentina
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SassuoloFiorentina
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
17th
9
Games Played
9
0.89
Points/Game
0.56
1.56
Goals/Game
1.22
2.44
Conceded/Game
2.33
12.6
Shots/Game
16.9
4.5
Shots on Target
5.1
Home vs Away Context
Sassuolo at home (5 matches) vs Fiorentina away (6 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
1.83
2.80
Conceded/Game
2.33
40%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sassuolo
Home form
L
W
W
D
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Fiorentina
Away form
L
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sassuolo Wins
2
Draws
1
Fiorentina Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Fiorentina0 – 0Sassuolo
Sassuolo3 – 1Fiorentina
Fiorentina5 – 1Sassuolo
Sassuolo1 – 0Fiorentina
Sassuolo1 – 3Fiorentina
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sassuolovs
Fiorentina
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.20
2.60
Goals conceded / game
2.30
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.2%→Latest 60.7%+3.5 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 63.7%+2.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?