Roma vs Genoa Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Olimpico
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.57
Draw
4.20
Away Win
6.13
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Roma
Genoa
Matias Soule 🟨
43'
Santiago Thomas Castro ⚽
50'
51'
🟨 Johan Vásquez
65'
🟨 Leo Østigård
Emanuele Lulli ⚽
68'
Niccolò Pisilli 🟨
76'
81'
🟨 Mikael Ellertsson
Match Statistics ?
66%
Ball Possession
34%
15
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
1
5
Corner Kicks
3
10
Fouls
7
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Roma (3-4-2-1)
P. Gollini
L. Balerdi
E. Ndicka
K. Koulierakis
E. Lulli
M. de Roon
N. Pisilli
D. Rensch
M. Soulé
Rodrigo Mora
S. Castro
Genoa (3-4-2-1)
J. Bijlow
A. Marcandalli
L. Østigård
J. Vásquez
M. Ellertsson
S. Wiafe
M. Frendrup
D. Puczka
Junior Messias
S. El Shaarawy
M. Osmajić
Player Ratings ?
Roma
S. CastroF8.0
L. BalerdiD7.6
E. NdickaD7.6
Genoa
Junior MessiasM6.7
A. MarcandalliD6.6
S. El ShaarawyM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Roma
Roma rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Roma a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Roma stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Roma stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Roma stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Roma stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Roma arrive at home unbeaten in their last five outings with four victories and a single draw, while Genoa struggle away from home having secured just two draws from three defeats in that same span. The capital side have found the net in all of their last five home matches yet have managed only three clean sheets within that identical sample period. Roma face seven confirmed absences while Genoa carry seven certain unavailability alongside two players listed as doubtful ahead of this Serie A fixture. Roma rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Genoa won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 8 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Roma's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Roma's implied win probability has fallen by 12.1 percentage points, while Genoa's implied win probability has risen by 6.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Roma a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Roma unbeaten run
13
Roma points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Roma
Roma's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Roma win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Roma win
Latest market chance 61.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
73.5% → 61.4%
−12.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
17.1% → 22.9%
+5.8 pts
Genoa win
Latest market chance 15.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
9.4% → 15.7%
+6.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Roma
Draw
Genoa
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
RomaGenoa
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
17th
6
Games Played
6
2.33
Points/Game
0.67
2.33
Goals/Game
0.83
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.83
19.4
Shots/Game
11.7
6.5
Shots on Target
3.1
Home vs Away Context
Roma at home (7 matches) vs Genoa away (5 matches)
2.71
Points/Game
0.60
2.71
Goals/Game
0.60
0.71
Conceded/Game
1.60
86%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Roma
Home form
W
W
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Genoa
Away form
D
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Roma Wins
3
Draws
1
Genoa Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.8
Genoa2 – 1Roma
Roma3 – 1Genoa
Roma3 – 1Genoa
Genoa1 – 1Roma
Roma1 – 0Genoa
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Romavs
Genoa
Recent Scoring Profile
2.50
Goals scored / game
0.80
0.50
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.5%→Latest 53.3%−5.2 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.6%→Latest 50.4%+3.8 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Roma's 10 matches and 3 of Genoa's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?