Roma vs Cagliari Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Olimpico
Tue 27 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.34
Draw
5.11
Away Win
10.37
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 2
Match Events ?
Roma
Cagliari
10'
⚽ (P) M'Bala Nzola
Emanuele Lulli (Nahuel Molina) ⚽
15'
Niccolò Pisilli (Emanuele Lulli) ⚽
21'
81'
⚽ Daniel Maldini (Adam Obert)
Rodrigo Mora (Daniele Ghilardi) ⚽
85'
Donyell Malen ⚽
87'
90+4'
🟨 Juan Rodriguez
Match Statistics ?
61%
Ball Possession
39%
20
Total Shots
19
8
Shots on Goal
8
7
Corner Kicks
8
8
Fouls
8
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
6
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Roma (3-5-2)
P. Gollini
G. Mancini
E. Ndicka
K. Koulierakis
E. Lulli
B. Cristante
M. de Roon
N. Pisilli
N. Molina
M. Soulé
S. Castro
Cagliari (3-5-1-1)
E. Caprile
Zé Pedro
Y. Mina
J. Rodríguez
Y. Sugawara
M. Adopo
A. Romano
A. Deiola
A. Obert
A. Fadera
M'Bala Nzola
Player Ratings ?
Roma
Rodrigo MoraM8.2
P. GolliniG7.9
E. LulliM7.8
Cagliari
D. MaldiniF8.0
A. ObertM7.1
M'Bala NzolaF6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Roma
Roma rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Roma a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Roma stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Roma stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Roma stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Roma stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Roma have secured four victories and one draw from their last five home outings, while Cagliari manage three wins and two defeats in that same span away from home. At the Olimpico, Roma have scored in every single one of their last five matches but have kept three clean sheets during that identical period. Both sides face significant selection headaches with Roma having four confirmed out-counts and one doubtful option, a situation mirrored by Cagliari who also list four unavailable players and one in doubt. Roma rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Roma won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 9 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Cagliari's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Roma's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points, while Cagliari's implied win probability has fallen by 0.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Roma a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Roma unbeaten run
50%
Cagliari yellow cards after 75'
13
Roma points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Roma
Roma's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Roma win as more likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Roma win
Latest market chance 70.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
69.4% → 70.9%
+1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 18.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
19.6% → 18.7%
−0.9 pts
Cagliari win
Latest market chance 10.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
11.0% → 10.4%
−0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Roma
Draw
Cagliari
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
RomaCagliari
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
9th
8
Games Played
8
2.25
Points/Game
1.63
2.38
Goals/Game
0.75
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.12
19.4
Shots/Game
10.9
6.5
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Roma at home (7 matches) vs Cagliari away (7 matches)
2.71
Points/Game
1.29
2.71
Goals/Game
1.00
0.71
Conceded/Game
2.14
86%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Roma
Home form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Cagliari
Away form
W
W
W
L
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Roma Wins
3
Draws
1
Cagliari Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.6
Roma2 – 0Cagliari
Cagliari1 – 0Roma
Roma1 – 0Cagliari
Cagliari0 – 0Roma
Roma4 – 0Cagliari
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Romavs
Cagliari
Recent Scoring Profile
2.30
Goals scored / game
0.80
0.60
Goals conceded / game
1.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.3%→Latest 57.9%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.5%→Latest 48.0%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
1 of Roma's 10 matches and 1 of Cagliari's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?