Parma vs Bologna Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Ennio Tardini
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.59
Draw
3.67
Away Win
1.85
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Parma
Bologna
Abdoulaye Niakhate Ndiaye 🟥
9'
José David Romero 🟨
14'
20'
🟨 Nicolo Casale
Mariano Troilo 🟨
42'
53'
⚽ Arthur Theate (Nicolo Cambiaghi)
Enrico DelPrato 🟨
72'
72'
⚽ (P) Riccardo Orsolini
80'
🟨 Martin Vitik
Vincent Sierro ⚽ (P)
81'
Match Statistics ?
31%
Ball Possession
69%
11
Total Shots
33
2
Shots on Goal
10
1
Corner Kicks
15
11
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
8
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Parma (3-5-2)
G. Daffara
E. Del Prato
M. Troilo
A. N'Diaye
B. Cremaschi
G. Fabbian
V. Sierro
M. Keita
E. Valeri
D. Romero
S. Lontani
Bologna (3-4-3)
Ł. Skorupski
M. Darmian
N. Casale
A. Theate
N. Zortea
L. Ferguson
T. Pobega
Juan Miranda
F. Bernardeschi
J. Odgaard
N. Cambiaghi
Player Ratings ?
Parma
G. DaffaraG7.2
S. LontaniF6.7
N. ElphegeF6.7
Bologna
R. OrsoliniF7.8
A. TheateD7.8
N. CambiaghiF7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Bologna
Bologna rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Parma edge head-to-head, giving Bologna a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bologna stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bologna stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bologna stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Parma stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bologna have secured three victories from their last five away outings, while Parma have managed just one win and two draws in their corresponding home sample. At the San Siro, Parma have found the net in just two of their last five matches and have kept a clean sheet only once during that same period. Bologna rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Parma rate stronger on head-to-head. Parma won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 8 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Bologna's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Bologna a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Parma losing run
50%
Parma yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Parma win
Latest market chance 21.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.3% → 21.2%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.2% → 26.9%
−0.3 pts
Bologna win
Latest market chance 51.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
51.5% → 51.9%
+0.4 pts
10 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ParmaBologna
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
9th
10
Games Played
10
0.80
Points/Game
1.40
0.80
Goals/Game
1.40
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.30
10.0
Shots/Game
13.6
3.2
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Parma at home (7 matches) vs Bologna away (6 matches)
0.71
Points/Game
2.00
0.57
Goals/Game
1.67
1.57
Conceded/Game
1.00
14%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Parma
Home form
D
W
L
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bologna
Away form
L
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Parma Wins
2
Draws
1
Bologna Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
Bologna0 – 1Parma
Parma1 – 3Bologna
Parma2 – 0Bologna
Bologna0 – 0Parma
Parma0 – 3Bologna
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Parmavs
Bologna
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.50
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
5/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 44.3%→Latest 45.9%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.0%→Latest 48.6%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?