Napoli vs Roma Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Maradona Stadium
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.81
Draw
3.41
Away Win
2.60
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 3
Match Events ?
Napoli
Roma
Rafael Marin Zamora 🟨
4'
Frank Anguissa ⚽
28'
30'
🟨 Bryan Cristante
45'
🟨 Devyne Rensch
Scott McTominay (Matteo Politano) ⚽
48'
61'
🟨 Leonardo Balerdi
69'
⚽ Matias Soule (Donyell Malen)
74'
⚽ Leonardo Balerdi (Santiago Thomas Castro)
Scott McTominay (Mathias Olivera) ⚽
83'
86'
🟨 Marten de Roon
89'
⚽ Leonardo Balerdi (Wesley Vinícius França Lima)
Massimiliano Allegri 🟥
90'
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
15
Total Shots
24
9
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
11
6
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Napoli (4-3-3)
A. Meret
G. Di Lorenzo
Rafa Marín
B. Badiashile
M. Olivera
K. De Bruyne
A. Zambo Anguissa
S. McTominay
M. Politano
R. Højlund
N. Lang
Roma (3-5-2)
P. Gollini
G. Mancini
E. Ndicka
Hermoso
D. Rensch
M. de Roon
B. Cristante
N. Pisilli
Wesley
M. Soulé
D. Malen
Player Ratings ?
Napoli
S. McTominayM9.0
A. Zambo AnguissaM7.8
M. PolitanoF7.6
Roma
L. BalerdiD9.0
M. SouléF8.2
D. MalenF7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Napoli edge head-to-head, Roma edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Roma stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Roma slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Roma stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Napoli stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Roma have enjoyed an impressive run away from home with four wins and a single draw in their last five outings, while Napoli have secured four victories but suffered one defeat during the same span at this venue. Napoli have found the net in every match at home over the last five games, yet they have also kept four clean sheets during that identical period. Both sides carry six players unavailable for selection ahead of this fixture. Roma rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while Napoli rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 15 February 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Napoli's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points, while Roma's implied win probability has fallen by 2.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Roma unbeaten run
13
Roma points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Roma
Roma's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Roma win as less likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Napoli win
Latest market chance 33.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
32.3% → 33.9%
+1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.6% → 28.2%
+0.6 pts
Roma win
Latest market chance 37.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
40.1% → 37.9%
−2.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Napoli
Draw
Roma
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NapoliRoma
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
3rd
7
Games Played
7
1.43
Points/Game
2.43
1.43
Goals/Game
2.29
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.43
15.5
Shots/Game
19.4
5.6
Shots on Target
6.5
Home vs Away Context
Napoli at home (6 matches) vs Roma away (5 matches)
1.83
Points/Game
2.20
2.00
Goals/Game
2.80
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
50%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Napoli
Home form
W
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Roma
Away form
W
W
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Napoli Wins
2
Draws
3
Roma Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.4
Napoli2 – 2Roma
Roma0 – 1Napoli
Roma1 – 1Napoli
Napoli1 – 0Roma
Napoli2 – 2Roma
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Napolivs
Roma
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
2.20
0.80
Goals conceded / game
0.30
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.9%→Latest 50.7%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.1%→Latest 55.9%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
1 of Napoli's 10 matches and 2 of Roma's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?