Napoli vs Lazio Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Maradona Stadium
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 11:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.36
Draw
3.69
Away Win
2.97
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Napoli
Lazio
28'
⚽ Davide Frattesi (Tijjani Noslin)
Noa Lang 🟨
44'
Alfonso Pedraza ⚽ (OG)
48'
Antonio Vergara 🟨
65'
Billy Gilmour 🟨
65'
78'
🟨 Alfonso Pedraza
Match Statistics ?
48%
Ball Possession
52%
15
Total Shots
15
6
Shots on Goal
6
6
Corner Kicks
6
12
Fouls
11
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Napoli (3-5-2)
V. Milinković-Savić
S. Beukema
Amir Rrahmani
Rafa Marín
A. Vergara
K. De Bruyne
B. Gilmour
S. McTominay
M. Olivera
R. Højlund
N. Lang
Lazio (4-3-3)
C. Mandas
R. Floriani Mussolini
J. Šutalo
O. Provstgaard
Nuno Tavares
D. Frattesi
R. Belahyane
K. Taylor
G. Isaksen
A. Pinamonti
T. Noslin
Player Ratings ?
Napoli
V. Milinković-SavićG8.0
Amir RrahmaniD7.2
Rafa MarínD7.0
Lazio
D. FrattesiM8.1
C. MandasG7.9
T. NoslinF7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Lazio
Lazio rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Lazio a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lazio slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lazio have secured five straight away victories in their last five outings, while Napoli's home record over the same span stands at three wins, a draw and a defeat. Napoli have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that identical sample. Both sides carry one player unavailable for selection ahead of this Serie A fixture. Lazio rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Lazio won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 18 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Napoli's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Napoli's implied win probability has fallen by 3.1 percentage points, while Lazio's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Lazio a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Napoli
Napoli's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Napoli win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Napoli win
Latest market chance 41.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
46.2% → 41.0%
−5.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.7% → 26.4%
+0.7 pts
Lazio win
Latest market chance 32.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
28.1% → 32.6%
+4.5 pts
10 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NapoliLazio
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
1st
10
Games Played
10
1.40
Points/Game
2.80
1.70
Goals/Game
2.40
1.30
Conceded/Game
0.80
15.5
Shots/Game
13.9
5.6
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Napoli at home (6 matches) vs Lazio away (6 matches)
1.83
Points/Game
2.67
2.00
Goals/Game
2.50
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.67
50%
Win Rate
83%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Napoli
Home form
L
W
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lazio
Away form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight away
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Napoli Wins
1
Draws
2
Lazio Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
Napoli0 – 2Lazio
Lazio0 – 2Napoli
Lazio2 – 2Napoli
Napoli0 – 1Lazio
Lazio0 – 0Napoli
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Napolivs
Lazio
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.20
Goals conceded / game
0.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.9%→Latest 57.1%+3.2 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.3%→Latest 60.8%+3.5 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?