Monza vs Napoli Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Brianteo
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.39
Draw
4.15
Away Win
1.76
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 4
Match Events ?
Monza
Napoli
Saba Goglichidze 🟨
8'
10'
⚽ Rasmus Hojlund (Giovanni Di Lorenzo)
Ivan Juric 🟨
25'
Gustavo Varela (Jay Robinson) ⚽
43'
48'
⚽ Matteo Politano
Foe Ondoa 🟨
52'
62'
⚽ Rafael Marin Zamora (Matteo Politano)
67'
⚽ Kevin De Bruyne (Noa Lang)
Leonardo Colombo 🟨
88'
Match Statistics ?
35%
Ball Possession
65%
12
Total Shots
16
5
Shots on Goal
7
2
Corner Kicks
2
14
Fouls
6
3
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Monza (3-4-2-1)
N. Törnqvist
S. Birindelli
S. Goglichidze
L. Lucchesi
A. Bakoune
M. Ondoa
L. Colombo
Ricardo Mangas
C. Ngonge
Jay Robinson
Gustavo Varela
Napoli (4-3-3)
V. Milinković-Savić
G. Di Lorenzo
Amir Rrahmani
Rafa Marín
M. Olivera
A. Zambo Anguissa
S. Lobotka
S. McTominay
M. Politano
R. Højlund
N. Lang
Player Ratings ?
Monza
Gustavo VarelaF8.0
Jay RobinsonM6.9
M. OndoaM6.5
Napoli
M. PolitanoF8.7
Rafa MarínD7.9
R. HøjlundF7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Napoli
Napoli rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving Napoli a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Napoli stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Napoli stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Napoli stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Napoli have managed just one win and a draw from their last five away outings, whereas Monza boast three victories in their last five matches at home. Monza have scored in all of their last five home fixtures but have managed only two clean sheets during that same period. Monza face potential absences with two players out and one doubtful, while Napoli carry a heavier burden with six confirmed out and two doubtful for their visitors' side. Napoli rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Napoli won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 19 April 2025, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Monza's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Monza's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points, while Napoli's implied win probability has risen by 2.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Napoli a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Napoli
Napoli's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Napoli win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Monza win
Latest market chance 21.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
23.4% → 21.9%
−1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.6% → 24.3%
−1.3 pts
Napoli win
Latest market chance 53.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
51.0% → 53.8%
+2.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Monza
Draw
Napoli
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MonzaNapoli
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
10th
8
Games Played
8
0.88
Points/Game
1.38
1.88
Goals/Game
1.62
2.25
Conceded/Game
1.25
13.4
Shots/Game
15.5
5.5
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away Context
Monza at home (6 matches) vs Napoli away (7 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.00
2.17
Goals/Game
1.29
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.29
50%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Monza
Home form
L
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Napoli
Away form
W
L
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Monza Wins
1
Draws
1
Napoli Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.2
Monza0 – 1Napoli
Napoli2 – 0Monza
Monza2 – 4Napoli
Napoli0 – 0Monza
Monza2 – 0Napoli
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Monzavs
Napoli
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.60
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.10
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.1%→Latest 55.4%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.7%→Latest 56.1%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Monza's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?