Monza vs Cagliari Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Brianteo
Mon 19 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.50
Draw
3.14
Away Win
3.18
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 0
Match Events ?
Monza
Cagliari
Eddy Kouadio (Dany Mota) ⚽
39'
Gustavo Varela (Foe Ondoa) ⚽
47'
Jay Robinson (Gustavo Varela) ⚽
66'
76'
🟨 Harry Winks
Gustavo Varela ⚽
79'
Samuele Birindelli 🟨
82'
82'
🟨 Alieu Fadera
Match Statistics ?
45%
Ball Possession
55%
14
Total Shots
16
6
Shots on Goal
5
2
Corner Kicks
7
10
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Monza (3-4-2-1)
N. Törnqvist
E. Kouadio
S. Goglichidze
A. Carboni
S. Birindelli
M. Ondoa
E. Akinsanmiro
Ricardo Mangas
Dany Mota
Jay Robinson
Gustavo Varela
Cagliari (4-3-1-2)
E. Caprile
Zé Pedro
Y. Mina
J. Rodríguez
A. Obert
M. Adopo
H. Winks
A. Romano
D. Maldini
P. Mendy
M'Bala Nzola
Player Ratings ?
Monza
Gustavo VarelaF9.7
E. KouadioD8.6
Jay RobinsonM8.2
Cagliari
D. MaldiniM6.9
Kevin CarlosF6.8
J. RodríguezD6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Cagliari
Cagliari rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; Monza edge attack, giving Cagliari a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Cagliari stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Monza stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Cagliari stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Cagliari stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cagliari boast an impressive away record with four wins and a single draw from their last five outings, while Monza have suffered four defeats in their home sample over the same span. Monza have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that period. Both sides carry significant injury concerns, with four players unavailable for Monza and six missing from Cagliari's squad ahead of this Serie A clash. Cagliari rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Monza rate stronger on attack. Cagliari won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 30 March 2025, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Monza's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Monza's implied win probability has fallen by 5.0 percentage points, while Cagliari's implied win probability has risen by 4.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Cagliari a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
13
Cagliari points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Monza
Monza's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Monza win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Monza win
Latest market chance 39.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
44.0% → 39.0%
−5.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
29.6% → 30.4%
+0.8 pts
Cagliari win
Latest market chance 30.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
26.3% → 30.7%
+4.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Monza
Draw
Cagliari
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MonzaCagliari
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
7th
6
Games Played
6
0.67
Points/Game
2.17
1.50
Goals/Game
1.00
2.50
Conceded/Game
0.50
13.4
Shots/Game
10.9
5.5
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Monza at home (6 matches) vs Cagliari away (7 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.29
2.17
Goals/Game
1.00
1.50
Conceded/Game
2.14
50%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Monza
Home form
L
L
L
W
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Cagliari
Away form
W
W
W
W
L
Won 4 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Monza Wins
2
Draws
1
Cagliari Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Monza4 – 0Cagliari
Cagliari3 – 0Monza
Monza1 – 2Cagliari
Monza1 – 0Cagliari
Cagliari1 – 1Monza
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Monzavs
Cagliari
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.00
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.10
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 44.9%→Latest 45.6%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.1%→Latest 52.2%+2.1 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Monza's 10 matches and 3 of Cagliari's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?