Milan vs Inter Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.59
Draw
3.71
Away Win
2.07
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Milan
Inter
Christian Pulisic (Diego Moreira) ⚽
4'
Adrien Rabiot (Diego Moreira) ⚽
10'
22'
⚽ Alessandro Bastoni
Diego Moreira ⚽
43'
Koni De Winter 🟨
49'
Diego Moreira 🟨
52'
90'
🟨 Carlos Augusto
Match Statistics ?
43%
Ball Possession
57%
7
Total Shots
19
4
Shots on Goal
8
3
Corner Kicks
11
8
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
4
7
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Milan (3-4-2-1)
M. Maignan
Mario Gila
K. De Winter
S. Pavlović
Diego Moreira
L. Modrić
Y. Musah
S. Bocoum
A. Rabiot
C. Pulišić
Gonçalo Ramos
Inter (3-4-2-1)
Josep Martínez
Y. Bisseck
M. Akanji
A. Bastoni
D. Spence
N. Barella
H. Çalhanoğlu
Carlos Augusto
A. Diouf
P. Sučić
M. Thuram
Player Ratings ?
Milan
Diego MoreiraM9.0
M. MaignanG8.4
A. RabiotM8.1
Inter
H. ÇalhanoğluM7.2
A. BastoniD7.0
M. AkanjiD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Milan edge head-to-head, Inter edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Inter stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Inter stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Inter slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Inter have enjoyed an impressive run away from home with four wins and a single draw in their last five outings, while Milan have recorded three victories but suffered two defeats at the San Siro over that same period. The Rossoneri have scored in every one of their last five home matches yet have managed only two clean sheets within that identical sample. Both sides carry injury concerns ahead of the Derby della Madonnina, with four players unavailable and one player listed as doubtful for each club. Inter rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Milan rate stronger on head-to-head. Milan won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 8 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Inter's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Milan's implied win probability has fallen by 4.5 percentage points, while Inter's implied win probability has risen by 5.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Inter unbeaten run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
47%
Milan yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Inter
Inter's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Inter win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Milan win
Latest market chance 27.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
31.8% → 27.3%
−4.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.4% → 26.0%
−0.4 pts
Inter win
Latest market chance 46.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
41.8% → 46.8%
+5.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Milan
Draw
Inter
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MilanInter
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
1st
9
Games Played
9
2.00
Points/Game
2.78
2.00
Goals/Game
2.78
1.22
Conceded/Game
1.11
11.5
Shots/Game
21.3
4.5
Shots on Target
6.9
Home vs Away Context
Milan at home (5 matches) vs Inter away (6 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
2.17
2.60
Goals/Game
2.00
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.17
80%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Milan
Home form
L
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Inter
Away form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Milan Wins
3
Draws
1
Inter Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Milan1 – 0Inter
Inter0 – 1Milan
Milan1 – 1Inter
Inter1 – 2Milan
Milan1 – 2Inter
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Milanvs
Inter
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
2.70
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.00
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.7%→Latest 58.0%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.7%→Latest 60.6%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Milan's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?