Milan vs Bologna Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.73
Draw
3.92
Away Win
4.92
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 4
Match Events ?
Milan
Bologna
8'
⚽ Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda (Nadir Zortea)
Alphadjo Cissè ⚽
14'
Alphadjo Cissè (Fikayo Tomori) ⚽
27'
60'
⚽ (OG) Davide Bartesaghi
62'
⚽ Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda (Juan Miranda)
76'
🟨 Tommaso Pobega
84'
🟨 Torbjørn Heggem
86'
⚽ Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda (Jens Odgaard)
Match Statistics ?
66%
Ball Possession
34%
8
Total Shots
9
3
Shots on Goal
5
2
Corner Kicks
3
10
Fouls
16
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Milan (4-2-3-1)
M. Maignan
F. Tomori
K. De Winter
S. Pavlović
P. Estupiñán
Y. Musah
A. Jashari
O. Hutchinson
A. Cissè
D. Bartesaghi
Gonçalo Ramos
Bologna (3-4-3)
Ł. Skorupski
M. Darmian
N. Casale
A. Theate
N. Zortea
L. Ferguson
T. Pobega
R. Alhassane
F. Bernardeschi
J. Odgaard
S. Mbangula
Player Ratings ?
Milan
A. CissèM8.3
F. TomoriD6.8
A. JashariM6.6
Bologna
S. MbangulaF9.2
J. OdgaardF7.2
N. ZorteaM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Milan
Milan rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Milan a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bologna have secured three victories in their last five away outings, while Milan have also recorded three wins from their most recent five home fixtures. Milan have found the net in all five of their latest home matches yet have kept a clean sheet only twice during that same run. The Rossoneri face significant selection issues with three players unavailable and four more doubtful, whereas Bologna have three confirmed absences but no doubts. Milan rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Milan won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 3 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Bologna's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Milan's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points, while Bologna's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Milan a slight edge.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Milan
Milan's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Milan win as less likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Milan win
Latest market chance 56.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
58.5% → 56.4%
−2.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
23.8% → 24.6%
+0.8 pts
Bologna win
Latest market chance 19.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
17.6% → 19.0%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Milan
Draw
Bologna
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MilanBologna
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
13th
8
Games Played
8
2.25
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
0.88
Conceded/Game
1.25
11.5
Shots/Game
13.6
4.5
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Milan at home (5 matches) vs Bologna away (6 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
2.00
2.60
Goals/Game
1.67
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.00
80%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Milan
Home form
L
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bologna
Away form
W
L
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Milan Wins
3
Draws
1
Bologna Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
Bologna0 – 3Milan
Milan1 – 0Bologna
Milan3 – 1Bologna
Bologna2 – 1Milan
Milan2 – 2Bologna
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Milanvs
Bologna
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.4%→Latest 52.6%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.1%→Latest 53.3%+2.2 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Milan's 10 matches and 1 of Bologna's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?