Milan vs Atalanta Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.74
Draw
3.91
Away Win
4.95
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Milan
Atalanta
Gonçalo Ramos ⚽ (P)
24'
Adrien Rabiot 🟨
41'
Adrien Rabiot (Diego Moreira) ⚽
43'
Gonçalo Ramos •
57'
Mario Gila (Adrien Rabiot) ⚽
57'
66'
⚽ Gianluca Gaetano (Nicola Zalewski)
68'
🟨 Éderson José dos Santos
78'
🟨 Relja Obric
81'
⚽ Nikola Krstović (Raoul Bellanova)
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
11
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
2
3
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Milan (3-4-3)
M. Maignan
Mario Gila
K. De Winter
S. Pavlović
S. Chukwueze
Y. Musah
L. Modrić
Diego Moreira
A. Rabiot
Gonçalo Ramos
C. Pulišić
Atalanta (4-3-3)
M. Carnesecchi
R. Bellanova
T. Kristensen
S. Kolašinac
L. Bernasconi
L. Samardžić
Éderson
Mario Pasalic
C. De Ketelaere
N. Krstović
J. Rowe
Player Ratings ?
Milan
A. RabiotF9.0
Mario GilaD7.9
Diego MoreiraM7.2
Atalanta
N. KrstovićF7.6
G. GaetanoM7.2
R. BellanovaD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Milan edge recent form, attack and defence, Atalanta edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Milan slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Milan have recorded two victories from their last five home outings, whereas Atalanta have managed just a single win in their recent away fixtures. The Rossoneri have found the net in four of their last five home matches while also keeping three clean sheets in that same span. Milan face two confirmed absences for this encounter, while Atalanta will be without six players and could see a further four join them among the doubtful list. Milan rate stronger on attack and defence, with a slight advantage in form, while Atalanta rate stronger on head-to-head. Atalanta won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 10 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Milan's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Milan's implied win probability has risen by 2.3 percentage points, while Atalanta's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Atalanta losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
50%
Milan yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Milan
Milan's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Milan win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Milan win
Latest market chance 54.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
50.6% → 54.7%
+4.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
26.0% → 24.2%
−1.8 pts
Atalanta win
Latest market chance 21.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
23.3% → 21.1%
−2.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Milan
Draw
Atalanta
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MilanAtalanta
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
10th
6
Games Played
6
2.00
Points/Game
1.50
1.83
Goals/Game
1.33
0.83
Conceded/Game
1.33
11.5
Shots/Game
14.4
4.5
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Milan at home (5 matches) vs Atalanta away (5 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
0.80
2.60
Goals/Game
1.20
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.80
80%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Milan
Home form
D
L
L
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Atalanta
Away form
L
W
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Milan Wins
0
Draws
2
Atalanta Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.6
Milan2 – 3Atalanta
Atalanta1 – 1Milan
Milan0 – 1Atalanta
Atalanta2 – 1Milan
Milan1 – 1Atalanta
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Milanvs
Atalanta
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.4%→Latest 56.5%+4.1 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.5%→Latest 56.3%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
4 of Milan's 10 matches and 3 of Atalanta's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?