Lecce vs Juventus Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Stadio Via del Mare
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
6.44
Draw
4.28
Away Win
1.55
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Lecce
Juventus
29'
⚽ Weston McKennie (Douglas Luiz Soares)
41'
⚽ Douglas Luiz Soares (Federico Gatti)
Kialonda Gaspar 🟨
76'
Kialonda Gaspar 🟥
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
16
Total Shots
8
4
Shots on Goal
2
5
Corner Kicks
3
10
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
0
1
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
4
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Lecce (4-3-3)
W. Falcone
Danilo Veiga
Kialonda Gaspar
Tiago Gabriel
A. Gallo
M. Kaba
O. Ngom
Y. Maleh
K. N’Dri
W. Geubbels
A. Ahmed Fatah
Juventus (3-1-4-2)
G. Vicario
F. Gatti
Bremer
J. Lucumí
Douglas Luiz
P. Kalulu
W. McKennie
T. Koopmeiners
A. Cambiaso
N. Woltemade
R. Kolo Muani
Player Ratings ?
Lecce
Joël MonteiroF6.8
Tiago GabrielD6.7
Kialonda GasparD6.6
Juventus
Douglas LuizM9.0
W. McKennieM7.9
F. GattiD7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Juventus edge attack, defence and head-to-head, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Juventus stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Juventus stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Juventus stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Juventus arrive with two wins from their last five away fixtures, whereas Lecce have secured just two victories in their last five home outings. Lecce have found the net in three of their last five matches at home, though they have only managed one clean sheet during that same period. Both squads face significant rotation challenges ahead of kick-off, with Lecce having four players unavailable and Juventus suffering from nine absences. Juventus rate stronger on attack, defence and head-to-head, while form is closely matched. Juventus won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 9 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Lecce's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Lecce's implied win probability has risen by 1.7 percentage points, while Juventus's implied win probability has fallen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Juventus
Juventus's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Juventus win as less likely than it did 11 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lecce win
Latest market chance 14.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
12.4% → 14.1%
+1.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.4% → 22.7%
+0.3 pts
Juventus win
Latest market chance 63.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
65.2% → 63.2%
−2.0 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
12 snapshots
+2+10−1Oct 14Oct 17Oct 20Oct 22Oct 25
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lecce
Draw
Juventus
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Lecce
Juventus
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
10th
7
Games Played
7
1.29
Points/Game
1.57
1.29
Goals/Game
1.29
1.71
Conceded/Game
1.14
12.1
Shots/Game
16.4
4.6
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Lecce at home (5 matches) vs Juventus away (6 matches)
0.60
Points/Game
1.33
1.00
Goals/Game
1.33
2.40
Conceded/Game
1.33
20%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lecce
Home form
L
W
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Juventus
Away form
W
D
W
L
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lecce Wins
0
Draws
2
Juventus Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.2
2026-05-092025-2026
Lecce0 – 1Juventus
2026-01-032025-2026
Juventus1 – 1Lecce
2025-04-122024-2025
Juventus2 – 1Lecce
2024-12-012024-2025
Lecce1 – 1Juventus
2024-01-212023-2024
Lecce0 – 3Juventus
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lecce
vs
Juventus
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
74.3%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
51.6%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
31.1%
BTTSBoth teams score
48.6%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.3%→Latest 51.4%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 11 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.5%→Latest 48.0%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Oct 14Oct 17Oct 20Oct 22Oct 25
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 11 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
3 of Lecce's 10 matches and 3 of Juventus's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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