Lecce vs Genoa Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Via del Mare
Sun 01 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.54
Draw
3.08
Away Win
2.36
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Lecce
Genoa
11'
⚽ Milutin Osmajić (Junior Messias)
28'
⚽ Junior Messias (Stephan El Shaarawy)
Youssef Maleh ⚽
40'
Mohamed Kaba 🟨
59'
62'
🟨 Hamed Junior Traorè
Jamil Siebert 🟨
70'
E. Di Francesco 🟨
87'
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
18
Total Shots
13
7
Shots on Goal
3
6
Corner Kicks
3
19
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Lecce (4-3-3)
W. Falcone
Danilo Veiga
J. Siebert
Tiago Gabriel
A. Gallo
Olaf Gorter
O. Ngom
Y. Maleh
K. N’Dri
N. Štulić
Joël Monteiro
Genoa (3-4-2-1)
J. Bijlow
A. Marcandalli
L. Østigård
J. Vásquez
M. Ellertsson
M. Frendrup
H. Traorè
S. El Shaarawy
S. Wiafe
Junior Messias
M. Osmajić
Player Ratings ?
Lecce
Y. MalehM7.3
A. GalloD6.9
Joël MonteiroF6.8
Genoa
Junior MessiasM9.0
J. BijlowG7.6
M. OsmajićF7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lecce edge attack and head-to-head, Genoa edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Genoa slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lecce stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Genoa stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lecce slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Genoa arrive at this fixture with a troubling away record of five straight defeats in their last five outings, while Lecce have secured two victories from their home sample over the same span. Lecce have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but have only managed to keep a clean sheet once during that identical period. Five players are out for Lecce with no doubts registered, whereas Genoa face three confirmed absences alongside one player listed as doubtful. Genoa rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in form, while Lecce rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in head-to-head. Lecce won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 24 May 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Genoa's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.4 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Lecce's implied win probability has fallen by 6.0 percentage points, while Genoa's implied win probability has risen by 5.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Genoa losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
0
Genoa points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Lecce
Lecce's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lecce win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Genoa remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lecce win
Latest market chance 28.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
34.0% → 28.0%
−6.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 31.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
30.5% → 31.2%
+0.7 pts
Genoa win
Latest market chance 40.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
35.5% → 40.8%
+5.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lecce
Draw
Genoa
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LecceGenoa
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
13th
9
Games Played
9
1.00
Points/Game
1.11
1.11
Goals/Game
0.89
2.11
Conceded/Game
1.44
12.1
Shots/Game
11.7
4.6
Shots on Target
3.1
Home vs Away Context
Lecce at home (5 matches) vs Genoa away (5 matches)
0.60
Points/Game
0.60
1.00
Goals/Game
0.60
2.40
Conceded/Game
1.60
20%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lecce
Home form
W
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Genoa
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lecce Wins
1
Draws
2
Genoa Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.4
Lecce1 – 0Genoa
Genoa0 – 0Lecce
Genoa2 – 1Lecce
Lecce0 – 0Genoa
Genoa2 – 1Lecce
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Leccevs
Genoa
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 40.3%→Latest 39.5%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.9%→Latest 46.7%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Lecce's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?