Lecce vs Bologna Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Via del Mare
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.30
Draw
3.34
Away Win
1.99
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Lecce
Bologna
Ivan Ilić 🟨
10'
17'
⚽ Riccardo Orsolini (Nicolo Cambiaghi)
Paco Esteban 🟨
31'
44'
🟨 Torbjørn Heggem
Youssef Maleh 🟨
45+2'
Amar Fatah (Danilo Veiga) ⚽
64'
75'
⚽ Jay Enem (Nicolo Cambiaghi)
90+4'
🟨 Oussama El Azzouzi
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
19
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Goal
5
10
Corner Kicks
3
17
Fouls
8
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Lecce (4-3-3)
W. Falcone
Danilo Veiga
J. Siebert
Tiago Gabriel
A. Gallo
L. Coulibaly
I. Ilić
Y. Maleh
S. Pierotti
Paco Esteban
A. Ahmed Fatah
Bologna (3-4-2-1)
M. Pessina
M. Darmian
N. Casale
T. Heggem
N. Zortea
L. Ferguson
T. Pobega
Juan Miranda
R. Orsolini
N. Cambiaghi
R. Piccoli
Player Ratings ?
Lecce
A. Ahmed FatahF8.2
Danilo VeigaD7.1
A. GalloD7.0
Bologna
N. CambiaghiM8.3
J. EnemF7.5
R. OrsoliniM7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lecce edge recent form, Bologna edge defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lecce stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Bologna stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bologna stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bologna arrive with two away wins from their last five outings, while Lecce have secured two victories and a draw in their last five home matches. At home, Lecce have found the net in three of their last five matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that same period. Lecce carry two unavailable players into this fixture, whereas Bologna will be without three of their squad members. Lecce rate stronger on form, while Bologna rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Bologna won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 12 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Lecce's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Lecce's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points, while Bologna's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Bologna
Bologna's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Bologna win as more likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lecce win
Latest market chance 22.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
23.4% → 22.5%
−0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.0% → 28.8%
−0.2 pts
Bologna win
Latest market chance 48.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
47.6% → 48.7%
+1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lecce
Draw
Bologna
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LecceBologna
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
19th
5
Games Played
5
1.20
Points/Game
0.40
1.00
Goals/Game
0.60
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.20
12.1
Shots/Game
13.6
4.6
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Lecce at home (5 matches) vs Bologna away (6 matches)
0.60
Points/Game
2.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.67
2.40
Conceded/Game
1.00
20%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lecce
Home form
D
L
W
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bologna
Away form
L
W
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lecce Wins
0
Draws
2
Bologna Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.2
Bologna2 – 0Lecce
Lecce2 – 2Bologna
Lecce0 – 0Bologna
Bologna1 – 0Lecce
Bologna4 – 0Lecce
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Leccevs
Bologna
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.30
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
5/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.6%→Latest 45.6%−2.0 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 49.5%−2.5 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
5 of Lecce's 10 matches and 5 of Bologna's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?