Lazio vs Parma Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Olimpico
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.42
Draw
4.68
Away Win
8.27
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Lazio
Parma
Oliver Provstgaard 🟨
30'
38'
🟨 Vincent Sierro
Kenneth Taylor ⚽
50'
Diego Carlos ⚽ (OG)
58'
90+5'
⚽ Simone Lontani (Giovanni Fabbian)
Match Statistics ?
68%
Ball Possession
32%
21
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Goal
4
8
Corner Kicks
3
5
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Lazio (4-3-3)
C. Mandas
R. Floriani Mussolini
J. Šutalo
O. Provstgaard
Nuno Tavares
D. Frattesi
R. Belahyane
K. Taylor
G. Isaksen
T. Noslin
M. Zaccagni
Parma (5-3-2)
E. Corvi
E. Del Prato
Diego Carlos
M. Troilo
D. Drobnic
E. Valeri
M. Keita
V. Sierro
C. Ordoñez
E. Touré
D. Romero
Player Ratings ?
Lazio
K. TaylorM8.2
C. MandasG7.7
R. BelahyaneM7.2
Parma
S. LontaniF7.5
E. ValeriD6.9
M. FriganF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Lazio
Lazio rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Lazio an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Parma arrive with a difficult run of form, having suffered five straight defeats in their last five outings away from home, while Lazio have secured three wins and one draw from their most recent five matches at this venue. Lazio have found the net in four of their last five home games but have managed just one clean sheet during that same span. The hosts carry eight players unavailable for selection, whereas Parma have four absentees ahead of the match. Lazio rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 4 April 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Lazio's implied win probability has risen by 7.1 percentage points, while Parma's implied win probability has fallen by 3.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Lazio.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
55%
Parma yellow cards after 75'
0
Parma points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Lazio
Lazio's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Lazio win as more likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lazio win
Latest market chance 68.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
61.1% → 68.2%
+7.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
23.6% → 20.2%
−3.4 pts
Parma win
Latest market chance 11.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
15.3% → 11.6%
−3.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lazio
Draw
Parma
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LazioParma
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
19th
7
Games Played
7
2.71
Points/Game
0.57
2.00
Goals/Game
0.57
0.57
Conceded/Game
1.86
13.9
Shots/Game
10.0
4.7
Shots on Target
3.2
Home vs Away Context
Lazio at home (5 matches) vs Parma away (6 matches)
2.60
Points/Game
0.50
2.00
Goals/Game
0.83
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
80%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lazio
Home form
L
W
W
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Parma
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lazio Wins
2
Draws
2
Parma Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Lazio1 – 1Parma
Parma0 – 1Lazio
Lazio2 – 2Parma
Parma3 – 1Lazio
Lazio1 – 0Parma
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Laziovs
Parma
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
0.50
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.90
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
6/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.9%→Latest 50.8%+4.9 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 44.6%→Latest 44.3%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
3 of Lazio's 10 matches and 1 of Parma's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?