Lazio vs Monza Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Olimpico
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.71
Draw
3.93
Away Win
5.02
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Lazio
Monza
Nuno Tavares (Tijjani Noslin) ⚽
3'
13'
🟨 Andrea Carboni
Gustav Isaksen (Tijjani Noslin) ⚽
23'
35'
🟥 Lorenzo Lucchesi
Danilho Doekhi 🟨
45+2'
46'
⚽ Saba Goglichidze (Dany Mota)
Oliver Provstgaard 🟨
55'
Diogo Leite 🟨
68'
79'
🟨 Ivan Juric
Andrea Pinamonti (Alfonso Pedraza) ⚽
88'
Match Statistics ?
66%
Ball Possession
34%
17
Total Shots
14
7
Shots on Goal
6
7
Corner Kicks
6
10
Fouls
9
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
0
Offsides
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Lazio (4-3-3)
C. Mandas
R. Floriani Mussolini
D. Doekhi
O. Provstgaard
Nuno Tavares
D. Frattesi
R. Belahyane
K. Taylor
G. Isaksen
T. Noslin
M. Zaccagni
Monza (3-4-2-1)
N. Törnqvist
E. Kouadio
L. Lucchesi
A. Carboni
S. Birindelli
M. Folorunsho
E. Akinsanmiro
Ricardo Mangas
C. Ngonge
E. Zeballos
Gustavo Varela
Player Ratings ?
Lazio
T. NoslinF8.1
C. MandasG7.9
G. IsaksenF7.6
Monza
Dany MotaF7.6
S. GoglichidzeD7.2
Y. MayeD6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Lazio
Lazio rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Lazio an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lazio slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lazio have secured two victories from their last five home outings, while Monza have managed just a single win in that same span away from home. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches at this venue but have only kept one clean sheet during that identical period. Lazio face ten players unavailable for selection, whereas Monza have five absentees ahead of the Serie A encounter. Lazio rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Lazio won the most recent meeting 5-1 on 9 February 2025, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Monza's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Lazio's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while Monza's implied win probability has risen by 0.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Lazio.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from the draw
the draw's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a draw as less likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Lazio remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lazio win
Latest market chance 56.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
55.8% → 56.9%
+1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.7% → 24.3%
−1.4 pts
Monza win
Latest market chance 18.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
18.5% → 18.8%
+0.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lazio
Draw
Monza
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LazioMonza
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
15th
5
Games Played
5
2.60
Points/Game
0.80
1.60
Goals/Game
1.60
0.60
Conceded/Game
2.40
13.9
Shots/Game
13.4
4.7
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away Context
Lazio at home (5 matches) vs Monza away (6 matches)
2.60
Points/Game
0.17
2.00
Goals/Game
1.33
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.67
80%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lazio
Home form
D
L
W
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Monza
Away form
W
L
L
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lazio Wins
3
Draws
2
Monza Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.0
Lazio5 – 1Monza
Monza0 – 1Lazio
Monza2 – 2Lazio
Lazio1 – 1Monza
Monza0 – 2Lazio
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Laziovs
Monza
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.30
Goals conceded / game
2.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.6%→Latest 52.9%+7.3 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.9%→Latest 52.8%+5.9 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Lazio's 10 matches and 5 of Monza's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?