Lazio vs Cagliari Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Olimpico
Sun 01 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.47
Draw
4.67
Away Win
7.04
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Lazio
Cagliari
20'
⚽ M'Bala Nzola (Alieu Fadera)
Gustav Isaksen (Tijjani Noslin) ⚽
36'
59'
🟨 Jacopo Fazzini
66'
🟨 Juan Rodriguez
76'
🟨 Adam Obert
Andrea Pinamonti (Alfonso Pedraza) ⚽
83'
Andrea Pinamonti 🟨
84'
90+1'
🟥 Adam Obert
Match Statistics ?
74%
Ball Possession
26%
11
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Goal
3
2
Corner Kicks
2
7
Fouls
18
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Lazio (4-3-3)
C. Mandas
R. Floriani Mussolini
J. Šutalo
O. Provstgaard
Nuno Tavares
D. Frattesi
R. Belahyane
K. Taylor
G. Isaksen
T. Noslin
M. Zaccagni
Cagliari (4-2-3-1)
E. Caprile
Zé Pedro
A. Deiola
J. Rodríguez
A. Obert
M. Adopo
A. Romano
A. Fadera
D. Maldini
J. Fazzini
M'Bala Nzola
Player Ratings ?
Lazio
G. IsaksenF7.8
A. PinamontiF7.5
F. Dele-BashiruM7.2
Cagliari
M'Bala NzolaF7.5
A. FaderaM6.8
R. KoflerD6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Lazio
Lazio rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Lazio an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lazio have secured four wins and a single draw in their last five home outings, while Cagliari have recorded two victories from five away fixtures. The hosts have scored in each of their last five matches at this venue but have managed just one clean sheet during that same period. Both squads carry significant injury concerns, with three players unavailable and two others in doubt for Lazio, while Cagliari face three confirmed absences alongside one player listed as doubtful. Lazio rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 21 February 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Lazio's implied win probability has risen by 5.7 percentage points, while Cagliari's implied win probability has fallen by 3.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Lazio.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
54%
Cagliari yellow cards after 75'
13
Lazio points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Lazio
Lazio's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Lazio win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lazio win
Latest market chance 65.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
60.3% → 65.0%
+4.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
23.8% → 21.1%
−2.7 pts
Cagliari win
Latest market chance 14.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
15.9% → 14.0%
−1.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lazio
Draw
Cagliari
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LazioCagliari
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
11th
9
Games Played
9
2.78
Points/Game
1.44
2.44
Goals/Game
0.89
0.78
Conceded/Game
1.44
13.9
Shots/Game
10.9
4.7
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Lazio at home (5 matches) vs Cagliari away (7 matches)
2.60
Points/Game
1.29
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.14
80%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lazio
Home form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Cagliari
Away form
W
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lazio Wins
4
Draws
1
Cagliari Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.4
Cagliari0 – 0Lazio
Lazio2 – 0Cagliari
Cagliari1 – 2Lazio
Lazio2 – 1Cagliari
Cagliari1 – 3Lazio
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Laziovs
Cagliari
Recent Scoring Profile
2.40
Goals scored / game
0.80
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
0/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.1%→Latest 52.9%+4.8 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.3%→Latest 48.0%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Lazio's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?