Inter vs Parma Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.13
Draw
10.02
Away Win
18.17
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Inter
Parma
Petar Sučić ⚽
13'
Hakan Çalhanoğlu ⚽ (P)
18'
Marcus Thuram (Henrikh Mkhitaryan) ⚽
31'
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
19
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Goal
2
3
Corner Kicks
1
13
Fouls
9
0
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
6
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Inter (3-5-2)
Josep Martínez
B. Pavard
Y. Bisseck
Carlos Augusto
A. Diouf
P. Sučić
H. Çalhanoğlu
H. Mkhitaryan
F. Dimarco
M. Thuram
F. Esposito
Parma (3-4-2-1)
E. Corvi
M. Troilo
Diego Carlos
F. Carboni
E. Del Prato
M. Keita
V. Sierro
E. Valeri
G. Fabbian
E. Touré
N. Elphege
Player Ratings ?
Inter
P. SučićM8.2
M. ThuramF7.9
H. ÇalhanoğluM7.8
Parma
V. SierroM6.7
M. KeitaM6.6
S. LontaniF6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Inter
Inter rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Inter a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Inter stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Inter stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Inter stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Inter stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Inter enjoy a flawless record at home in their last five outings, while Parma have secured just one win from the same number of away fixtures. The Nerazzurri have found the net in all five home matches recently but have kept only a single clean sheet during that span. Inter face two confirmed absences ahead of the clash, whereas Parma must manage four definite unavailability concerns for their squad. Inter rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Inter won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 3 May 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Parma's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 23-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Inter a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Inter unbeaten run
62%
Parma yellow cards after 75'
13
Inter points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Inter
Inter's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Inter win as less likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Inter win
Latest market chance 83.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
84.5% → 83.3%
−1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 11.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
10.3% → 11.0%
+0.7 pts
Parma win
Latest market chance 5.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
5.2% → 5.7%
+0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Inter
Draw
Parma
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
InterParma
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
15th
5
Games Played
5
2.60
Points/Game
0.80
3.00
Goals/Game
0.80
1.60
Conceded/Game
1.40
21.3
Shots/Game
10.0
6.9
Shots on Target
3.2
Home vs Away Context
Inter at home (7 matches) vs Parma away (6 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.50
3.14
Goals/Game
0.83
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
100%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Inter
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
3.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Parma
Away form
W
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Inter Wins
4
Draws
1
Parma Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.0
Inter2 – 0Parma
Parma0 – 2Inter
Parma2 – 2Inter
Inter3 – 1Parma
Parma1 – 2Inter
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Intervs
Parma
Recent Scoring Profile
2.60
Goals scored / game
0.80
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
0/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.5%→Latest 69.4%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 44.0%→Latest 45.6%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Inter's 10 matches and 5 of Parma's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?